STEC(600820) 国泰君安·2024-11-10 13:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the economic development level in the Shanghai region and local government finances, leading to long-term stable growth in performance. The current dividend yield is 4.65%, indicating investment value [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 74.94 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1% from 2023. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.06 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.2% [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 0.97 yuan, with subsequent years showing gradual increases to 1.01 yuan in 2025 and 1.04 yuan in 2026 [4][13]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 10.2% in 2023 to 9.3% in 2024 [4][13]. Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 42.88 billion yuan, down 8.57% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.35% to 1.499 billion yuan [2][7]. - The new signed orders in the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 65.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, with construction orders specifically rising by 13% [2][15]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 significantly improved to 2.392 billion yuan, compared to 368 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [2][4]. - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, distributing 0.1 yuan per share, totaling approximately 314 million yuan [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 8.71 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9 times for 2024 [2][7]. - The current price is 7.09 yuan, indicating potential upside based on the target price [7][18].