Zhujiang Brewery(002461) 天风证券·2024-11-11 00:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 7.37% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit increase of 25.35% [1]. - The sales volume of beer increased by 2.75% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 14.81% growth in high-end beer sales [1]. - The company is benefiting from a reduction in raw material costs, which has positively impacted its gross margin [2]. - The company is strategically upgrading its production capacity to align with the high-end beer market trend [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin for Q3 improved by 0.6 percentage points, driven by a 5.5% decrease in per-ton costs and a 4% increase in gross margin [2]. - The company forecasts net profit growth rates of 25%, 14%, and 13% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit amounts of 780 million yuan, 890 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan [2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 5.378 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.569 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.28% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.28 yuan in 2023 to 0.45 yuan in 2026 [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.80 in 2023 to 20.46 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation [3].