Economic Indicators - GDP growth is projected to show signs of recovery, with October PMI returning above the threshold, indicating economic improvement[2] - October exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.4%, while imports decreased by 2.3%[11] - Trade surplus for October reached 81.71 billion in the previous month, reflecting a robust external demand[11] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.55%, indicating a bearish trend in the equity market[10] - The bond market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1.25 basis points, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets[10] - The U.S. stock market experienced gains, with the Dow Jones up 4.61% and the S&P 500 up 4.66%, driven by expectations of tax cuts and deregulation under the Trump administration[10] Fiscal Policy Developments - The National People's Congress approved an increase in local government debt limits by 6 trillion yuan, aimed at replacing hidden debts over three years[16] - The fiscal policy for 2024 is expected to be proactive, with a potential increase in the deficit ratio to 3.2%-3.5% and an additional issuance of special bonds[20] - The government plans to issue 1 trillion yuan in special bonds for real estate recovery and 800 billion yuan for debt replacement in 2024[21] Risks and Outlook - The market is cautious about the recovery of the economy, with risks associated with fiscal stimulus measures not meeting expectations[4] - Future export growth may slow down as the base effect from October diminishes, although there are optimistic signs for Q4 due to seasonal demand[14] - Attention is focused on upcoming financial data releases, including M2 growth and social financing figures, which will provide further insights into economic health[22]
宏观周报2024年11月第二周
世纪证券·2024-11-11 09:27