梅花生物：味精价格下行拖累三季度业绩，关注苏、赖价格上涨

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 28.21 billion, 29.60 billion, and 31.09 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 4.9%, and 5.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.89 billion, 3.20 billion, and 3.48 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting a decline of 9.2% in 2024, followed by growth of 10.6% and 8.9% in 2025 and 2026 [1] - The company maintains a strong market position in key products such as monosodium glutamate, lysine, and threonine, and continues to reward shareholders through dividends and buybacks [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 18.68 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.995 billion CNY, down 7.65% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 17.65%, down 0.83 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.64%, down 2.74 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - The average prices for key products such as threonine and lysine have shown an upward trend, with threonine averaging 10.86 CNY/kg and 98.5% lysine at 10.63 CNY/kg in the third quarter [2] Dividend and Share Buyback Policy - The company has a history of high dividends, with cumulative dividends of 10.847 billion CNY since its listing and an average dividend payout ratio of 52.77% [3] - A share buyback plan has been announced, with a total amount not less than 300 million CNY and not exceeding 500 million CNY [3] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.01 CNY, 1.12 CNY, and 1.22 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.5, 8.6, and 7.9 [1][4] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 19.3% in 2024 to 17.9% in 2026 [5]