SHANGHAI ENERGY(600508) 开源证券·2024-11-12 02:44Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Energy (600508.SH) as part of its initial coverage [4]. Core Views - Shanghai Energy is positioned as one of the five major listed coal central enterprises, with a focus on coal mining and an integrated coal-electricity-aluminum-transportation business model. The company has shown a steady increase in dividend payout ratios and is expected to benefit from valuation recovery and dividend potential [4][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The current stock price is 14.07 CNY, with a market capitalization of 101.69 billion CNY. The report highlights a significant turnover rate of 52.02% over the past three months [4]. Financial Performance - The report forecasts Shanghai Energy's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 8.1 billion CNY, 9.7 billion CNY, and 12 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.3%, +19.6%, and +23.2%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.12 CNY, 1.34 CNY, and 1.65 CNY, leading to PE ratios of 12.5, 10.5, and 8.5 times [5][6]. Dividend Policy - The company has increased its cash dividend payout ratio to 30.65% in 2024, with expectations that the actual dividend ratio could rise to 46.8% if the end-of-year dividend matches the previous year's [5][22]. Coal Business - Shanghai Energy operates four active mines with a total capacity of 9.09 million tons per year and is constructing a new mine expected to add 2.4 million tons by the end of 2025. The company maintains a coal washing rate above 80%, with a selling price of 1,167.1 CNY per ton, which is higher than comparable companies [5][6][20]. Integrated Operations - The company has a comprehensive energy supply chain, including power generation with a total installed capacity of 1,083 MW, which is expected to increase to 1,288 MW with ongoing projects. The report notes a steady improvement in profitability from the power segment due to decreasing fuel costs [5][6][20]. Valuation Analysis - Shanghai Energy's PB ratio is currently at 0.79, significantly lower than the coal sector average of 1.39, indicating a potential for valuation recovery. The report suggests that the company may implement market value management strategies to enhance its valuation [5][6][20].