来源：中国能源网 我们认为，当前正处在煤炭经济新一轮周期上行的初期，基本面、政策面共振，现阶段逢低配置煤炭板 块正当时。本周基本面变化：供给方面，本周样本动力煤矿井产能利用率为87.5%(-0.8个百分点)，样本 炼焦煤矿井产能利用率为86.67%(-2.46个百分点)。需求方面，内陆17省日耗周环比下降81.80万吨/日 (-18.1%)，沿海8省日耗周环比下降16.30万吨/日(-7.22%)。非电需求方面，化工耗煤周环比上升1.80万 吨/日(+0.24%)；钢铁高炉开工率为79.53%(+0.53个百分点)；水泥熟料产能利用率为39.4%(-5.79个百分 点)。价格方面，本周秦港Q5500煤价收报692元/吨(+1元/吨)；京唐港主焦煤价格收报1700元/吨(-80元/ 吨)。值得注意的是，本周海外供给端突发扰动，印尼政府1月向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平 降低40％至70%，引起行业协会反对，已暂停现货煤炭出口。此前2022年印尼也曾短暂停止出口，本次 印尼暂停现货出口的影响以及具体减产力度仍需跟踪验证。我们认为，印尼政府将2026年煤炭生产配额 设定为6亿吨，较2025年实际产量7.9 ...

煤炭 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《煤价回归合理才是常态，稳煤价逻 辑依旧—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《2025Q4 煤价环比改善，重视周期弹 性—行业点评报告》-2026.1.27 《煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳 字是核心—行业周报》-2026.1.25 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 煤炭 沪深300 印尼进口煤价中枢有望提高，稳煤价逻辑依旧 ——行业周报 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：印尼进口煤价中枢有望提高，稳煤价逻辑依旧 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 2 月 6 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 695 元/吨，环比上涨 3 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以下，我们预计未来价 格将逐步修复到 750 元 ...

煤炭 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《煤价回归合理才是常态，稳煤价逻 辑依旧—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《2025Q4 煤价环比改善，重视周期弹 性—行业点评报告》-2026.1.27 《煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳 字是核心—行业周报》-2026.1.25 印尼进口煤价中枢有望提高，稳煤价逻辑依旧 ——行业周报 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：印尼进口煤价中枢有望提高，稳煤价逻辑依旧 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 2 月 6 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 695 元/吨，环比上涨 3 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以下，我们预计未来价 格将逐步修复到 750 元 ...

供给收缩或提振煤价，逢低再布局弹性标的 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 07 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,855.11 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,441.23 | 2026-02-02 配置机会》2026-01-31 2026-01-24 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 202 ...

中国中煤能源集团有限公司（简称中国中煤）是国务院国资委监管的国有特大型重点骨干企业，其前身是1982年经国务院批准 成立的中国煤炭进出口总公司，经过多次兼并重组，2009年改制成为国有独资公司，并更名为中国中煤能源集团有限公司。主 营业务包括煤炭开发利用及相关贸易和服务，电力、热力生产供应及相关服务，煤基新材料及相关化学品开发利用，相关装备 制造及工程技术服务。现拥有及或有煤炭资源储量700亿吨以上，生产及在建煤矿69座，煤炭总产能3.1亿吨/年，煤炭年贸易量 近4亿吨。运营及在建煤化工项目11个，总产能超2000万吨，产品主要包括聚烯烃、甲醇、尿素、硝铵、焦炭等。在运在建火电 项目35个、装机规模4755万千瓦，新能源装机规模700万千瓦。煤矿设计建设、煤机装备制造综合实力、技术水平、市场占有率 居行业前列。拥有中煤能源（A＋H）、上海能源、新集能源3家上市公司。截至2025年6月，中国中煤管理资产总额超6000亿 元，职工12万人，连续6年获得国务院国资委经营业绩考核A级，连续6年位列《财富》世界企业500强。 中煤新集能源股份有限公司（以下简称公司）是中国中煤在皖二级企业，产业分布在皖赣两省，紧临长三角 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant reduction in coal production quotas by the Indonesian government, which aims to boost coal prices by decreasing export volumes by 40% to 70% for major miners by 2025 [5] - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to impose an export surcharge, which may further weaken the profitability of the coal industry [5] Group 2 - The article lists several companies involved in coal mining, coal chemical, and coal-electricity integration, including China Shenhua, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8][9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shanghai Energy (600508) has reported a total of 36,393 shareholders as of January 30, 2026 [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅% ↑ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600403 | 大有能源 | -9.91 | 159亿 | -4.87 | | 601015 | 陕西黑猫 | -8.73 | 85.38亿 | 15.47 | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | -7.99 | 63.98亿 | -1.76 | | 601898 | 中煤能源 | -7.68 | 1675 Z | 1.53 | | 000723 | 美锦能源 | -7.31 | 207亿 | -0.21 | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | -6.98 | 386亿 | 5.92 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | -6.72 | 47.73亿 | 10.82 | | 002128 | 电投能源 | -6.40 | 607亿 | -3.01 | | 600121 | 郑州煤电 | -6.39 | 51.78亿 | 1.92 | | 601225 | 陕西煤业 | -6.24 | 2025亿 | -2.02 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | -6.24 | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report emphasizes that the price of thermal coal is influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors, while coking coal prices are more market-driven [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 RMB per ton for 2025 [4][15] - Coking coal prices are determined by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. Key stocks to consider include: - Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversification and growth logic: 神火股份, 电投能源, 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points [10][25] - As of January 30, the price of Qin港 Q5500 thermal coal was 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 7 RMB from the previous period [21] - The report notes a significant drop in coal inventory at ports, indicating tightening supply conditions [21][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report outlines a four-step process for the upward movement of thermal coal prices, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven point for coal and power companies [4][15] - The report emphasizes that the overall investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly during the heating season [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery is expected to follow a specific process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven price of around 750 RMB per ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 RMB to 2064 RMB depending on thermal coal price movements [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, and 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, and 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points, with notable gains from companies like 盘江股份 and 山西焦化 [10][25] - The report provides various market indicators, including port prices for thermal coal at 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase, and coking coal prices remaining stable at 1800 RMB per ton [21][23]