BCDC(600376) 海通证券·2024-11-12 03:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit due to a reduction in the number of housing projects delivered, resulting in a 55.69% year-on-year decrease in operating income to 14.463 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [5][9] - The net loss attributable to shareholders for the same period was 4.283 billion yuan, a 39.71% increase in losses compared to the previous year, primarily due to decreased revenue, lower gross margins, and increased expense ratios [5][9] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 6.91%, down 5.09 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [5][10] - The company has seen an increase in the proportion of projects located in Beijing, with 44.15% of the sold (pre-sold) area being in this region, up 5.02 percentage points year-on-year [6][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 14.463 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.69% year-on-year, attributed to fewer housing deliveries [9] - The total cost of operations was 18.967 billion yuan, down 43.68% year-on-year [9] - The company recorded a net cash flow from operating activities of -2.472 billion yuan, a decline of 140.23% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced sales receipts [6][10] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of September 30, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents stood at 13.701 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.38% year-on-year [6][10] - The debt-to-asset ratio was 76.12%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [6][10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.08 yuan and 0.14 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively [7][12] - The estimated price-to-book (P/B) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 0.5 and 0.6, suggesting a reasonable value range of 4.22 to 5.06 yuan per share [7][12]