Changzhou Fusion New Material (688503) 东海证券·2024-11-12 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of 9.826 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 421 million yuan, a decrease of 4.47% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the operating revenue was 3.061 billion yuan, down 4.87% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 122 million yuan, down 28.87% year-on-year [5] - Fluctuations in silver prices and downstream production schedules have caused short-term performance volatility. The increase in silver prices at the end of Q2 and subsequent decline led to higher inventory costs for silver powder in Q3, resulting in a decrease in gross margin. The company's photovoltaic conductive silver paste shipment volume exceeded 1,610 tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with N-type products accounting for approximately 73% [5] - The silver powder business is gradually ramping up, and integration is expected to open up performance space. The company's silver paste supply chain has achieved full coverage of PERC and TOPCon silver paste, with monthly production capacity exceeding 40 tons and monthly sales exceeding 20 tons. Additionally, the Changzhou 3,000-ton silver powder project is expected to reach production capacity next year [6] - New technology layouts are expected to gradually materialize. The company has developed packaging positioning glue for the 0BB technology process, which has achieved large-scale production with relevant customers. The company is also launching new insulation and battery protection glue series products for BC component packaging requirements [6] - The company is expected to benefit from continuous technological iteration and new business development, maintaining its leading position. The forecast for operating revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 13.577 billion yuan, 15.907 billion yuan, and 17.836 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 31.94%, 17.16%, and 12.13%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is projected to be 567 million yuan, 730 million yuan, and 832 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.80x, 21.59x, and 18.93x [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported operating revenue of 9.826 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a 32.80% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 421 million yuan, down 4.47% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 3.061 billion yuan, down 4.87% year-on-year, with net profit of 122 million yuan, down 28.87% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin is affected by fluctuations in silver prices and production schedules, with Q3 gross margin declining due to high inventory costs [5] Business Development - The silver powder business is expanding, with a monthly production capacity exceeding 40 tons and sales exceeding 20 tons. The Changzhou project is expected to reach production capacity next year [6] - New technology developments include large-scale production of packaging glue for 0BB technology and new insulation products for BC components [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position with projected revenues of 13.577 billion yuan, 15.907 billion yuan, and 17.836 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 567 million yuan, 730 million yuan, and 832 million yuan [7]