[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月14日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_stockTrend] -16% -8% 0% 7% 15% 23% 30% 25-02 25-05 25-08 25-11 申万行业指数:银行(0748) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.企业融资回暖，货币政策结构性优 先于总量性——银行业"量价质"跟 踪（二十二） 2.招商银行（600036）：业绩寻底， 红利与价值属性兼备——公司简评 报告 3.企业短期贷款与债券融资较好，存 款季节性回表——银行业"量价质" 跟踪（二十一） [Table_NewTitle 多因素推动社融与 ] M2保持较快增长 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二十三） 行 业 简 评 银 行 [table_invest] ➢ 事件：中国人民银行公布2026 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月14日 [Table_NewTitle] 1月通胀降温或是"烟雾弹" ——海外观察：美国2026年1月CPI数据 图1 美国 CPI 数据拆分 [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 事件：当地时间2月13日，美国劳工局公布2026年1月美国CPI数据。美国1月未季调CPI同 比2.4%，预期2.5%，前值2.7%；核心CPI同比2.5%，预期2.5%，前值2.6%。季调后CPI 环比0.2%，预期0.3%，前值0.3%；核心CPI环比0.3%，预期0.3%，前值0.2%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国1月整体通胀数据降温明显，食品和能源价格为通胀下行的主要推手。然 而核心通胀方面则有超预期上行的风险，核心商品项下和关税挂钩较深的服饰以及新车价 格均有 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月14日 [Table_NewTitle] 1月通胀降温或是"烟雾弹" ——海外观察：美国2026年1月CPI数据 [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 房屋 房租 业主等效租金 总 量 研 究 ➢ 事件：当地时间2月13日，美国劳工局公布2026年1月美国CPI数据。美国1月未季调CPI同 比2.4%，预期2.5%，前值2.7%；核心CPI同比2.5%，预期2.5%，前值2.6%。季调后CPI 环比0.2%，预期0.3%，前值0.3%；核心CPI环比0.3%，预期0.3%，前值0.2%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国1月整体通胀数据降温明显，食品和能源价格为通胀下行的主要推手。然 而核心通胀 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月13日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 方逸洋 fyy@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260213 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.陕鼓动力（601369）: 高分红能量转换设备龙头，"制造+运营+服务"协同发展——公 司深度报告 ➢ 2.教育医疗支撑美国就业市场保持强劲——海外观察：美国2026年1月非农数据 ➢ 1.商务部回应欧盟批准对一款中国品牌SUV免征关税 ➢ 2.外交部：中美元首通话中，特朗普总统再次表达了4月访华的愿望 ➢ 3.央行加量续作买断式逆回购操作 | ...

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 70,000 jobs, with the previous month's figure revised down to 48,000 from 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4% and down from the previous 4.4%[2] - Private sector employment increased by 172,000 jobs, with the production sector adding 36,000 jobs and the service sector contributing 136,000 jobs[2] Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose by 0.4% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in the previous month, raising concerns about inflation driven by wage growth[2] - The significant increase in wages, particularly in cyclical industries like transportation and finance, is attributed to labor shortages caused by adverse weather conditions[2] Sector-Specific Insights - The construction sector saw a rebound with 33,000 new jobs, primarily due to preemptive hiring, although wage growth in this sector slowed from 0.4% to 0.2%[2] - The healthcare and education sectors added 137,000 jobs, largely influenced by the extension of the Affordable Care Act, while financial activities and leisure sectors faced declines[2] Government Employment Trends - Government employment decreased by 42,000 jobs, with federal jobs down by 34,000 and state jobs down by 18,000, likely due to a temporary government shutdown affecting payroll reporting[2] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Following the employment data release, markets expect the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts until July, indicating a tightening labor market[2] - The U.S. economy is projected to continue its recovery, but inflation risks remain, particularly due to wage pressures in the labor market[3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the strong position of ShanGu Power (601369) as a leading manufacturer of energy conversion equipment, emphasizing its collaborative development in manufacturing, operation, and services [6][9] - ShanGu Power has maintained a high cash dividend payout rate exceeding 60% from 2019 to 2024, with cash reserves reaching 10.969 billion yuan by Q3 2025, indicating a solid financial status [6][9] - The company benefits from the rapid growth of compressed air energy storage, with a cumulative installed capacity expected to reach 73.76 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, and its compressor units achieving an overall efficiency of 88% [7][9] Group 2 - The coal chemical industry is strategically important due to China's energy structure, with ShanGu Power positioned as a core equipment supplier, benefiting from the expansion of coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas projects [8][9] - The industrial gas operation segment has become a stable growth engine for the company, with a market share of over 82% in domestic air separation compressors and revenue from energy infrastructure operations reaching 3.962 billion yuan in 2024 [8][9] Group 3 - The report indicates that Alphabet's revenue for 2025 reached 402.8 billion USD, a 15% year-on-year increase, with a notable 48% growth in cloud services driven by AI infrastructure demand [11] - The report also notes that Trane Technologies reported a 6% increase in revenue for Q4 2025, with a 24% growth in new orders, highlighting the demand for efficient HVAC solutions [12] - Johnson Controls experienced a 7% revenue growth in Q1 2026, with a 39% increase in self-owned business orders, indicating strong market performance [13] Group 4 - The January 2026 CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival, while the PPI decline narrowed to -1.4% [17][19] - The report discusses the core CPI's support from non-energy consumer goods, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, despite the overall CPI being affected by seasonal factors [19][20]

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change remained at 0.2%[2] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement from the previous decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - The decline in CPI year-on-year was influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, with fresh vegetable prices contributing a 0.27 percentage point decrease to the CPI[2] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI month-on-month growth of 0.2% was weaker than the average of 0.6% observed in years when the festival fell in mid to late February[2] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month decrease of 4.8%, leading to a year-on-year decline of 0.7% in food prices[2] PPI Insights - The PPI has shown a continuous month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, with a potential for year-on-year growth by mid-year if the monthly changes remain stable[2] - Key drivers for PPI improvement include rising prices in non-ferrous metals and a positive demand outlook in certain industries, despite some drag from the oil sector[2] Core CPI and Consumer Trends - The core CPI, excluding energy, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, indicating strong performance in non-energy consumer goods[2] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 3.73% in January, marking the first monthly rise since July 2025, driven by a decrease in the breeding sow population[2] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, a sharper decline in real estate investment, and unexpected inflation in the U.S.[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the machinery equipment industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The machinery equipment sector is experiencing significant growth driven by increased demand for efficient cooling solutions in data centers and AI infrastructure [3][22] - Major companies like Trane Technologies and Johnson Controls are reporting strong order growth, indicating a robust market environment [9][15] - Google's substantial capital expenditure plans for 2026 highlight the increasing investment in AI and cloud infrastructure, which is expected to further boost demand for related equipment [21] Summary by Sections 1. Trane Technologies Financial Review - Trane Technologies reported Q4 2025 revenue of $5.1 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $2.86, up 10% [9] - The company saw a 24% increase in new orders, with a record backlog of $7.8 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [10] - The commercial HVAC business is a key growth driver, with orders up over 35% in Q4 2025 [10] 2. Johnson Controls Performance - Johnson Controls achieved Q1 2026 revenue of $5.8 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, with a 39% rise in self-owned business orders [15] - The company has raised its adjusted EPS guidance for FY 2026 to approximately $4.70, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth [15] - The introduction of new products like the YORK YDAM chiller is aimed at enhancing data center cooling solutions [20] 3. Google's Cloud Business - Alphabet reported Q4 2025 revenue of $113.8 billion, an 18% increase, with cloud revenue growing 48% due to AI infrastructure demand [21] - The company plans to invest $175 to $185 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, nearly doubling its previous year's investment [21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the growth in data centers will create opportunities for Chinese cooling equipment manufacturers, such as Ice Wheel Environment and Linde Co., to capitalize on the demand for cooling solutions [22] - Companies like Invek, which provide comprehensive liquid cooling solutions, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this trend [22] 5. Caterpillar Financial Review - Caterpillar reported 2025 revenue of $67.6 billion, a 4% increase, with Q4 revenue reaching a record $19.1 billion [28] - The power and energy segment saw a 23% increase in sales, driven by demand from data centers [29] - The construction machinery segment also grew, but profit margins were pressured by rising costs [29]

Key Insights - The report highlights significant capital expenditure increases among the four major CSP manufacturers, driven by demand that is pushing up power semiconductor prices, indicating a robust recovery in the electronic sector [6][7] - The semiconductor industry is expected to reach a historic high in sales in 2025, with a projected increase in demand for computing power due to AI infrastructure investments [8] - The excavator market saw a substantial increase in both domestic and export sales in January 2026, indicating strong demand recovery in the machinery sector [13][14] - The small nucleic acid sector is gaining traction, with notable collaborations and sales growth, reflecting the increasing value of this market segment in the pharmaceutical industry [18][19] Group 1: Electronic Industry - The electronic sector is experiencing a recovery, with AI infrastructure investments leading to a surge in capital expenditures among major CSPs, expected to reach $670 billion in 2026, a 60% increase year-on-year [7] - The global semiconductor sales reached $791.7 billion in 2025, with a projected increase to over $1 trillion in 2026, driven by demand from AI and IoT technologies [8] - The price increase trend in semiconductors is spreading from memory chips to power, analog, and MCU chips, indicating a comprehensive price cycle in the semiconductor industry [8] Group 2: Machinery Industry - In January 2026, excavator sales increased by 49.5% year-on-year, with domestic sales up 61.4% and exports up 40.5%, reflecting strong demand recovery [13][14] - The loader market also saw significant growth, with sales increasing by 48.5% year-on-year, driven by major domestic projects and a growing overseas market [15] - The overall machinery industry is expected to continue its recovery, supported by government policies and infrastructure projects [14][15] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The small nucleic acid sector is highlighted for its potential, with a recent collaboration between Saint Gene and Gene Tech valued at up to $1.7 billion, showcasing the sector's growth and international recognition [19][20] - The pharmaceutical sector overall saw a slight increase of 0.14% in the last week, with certain sub-sectors like traditional Chinese medicine and medical services performing particularly well [18] - Investment opportunities are identified in biotech firms with core delivery technologies and those focusing on chronic disease areas, indicating a shift towards more sustainable growth in the pharmaceutical market [20]

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月10日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 方逸洋 fyy@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260210 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 ➢ 1.重磅合作+销售高增，小核酸赛道价值进一步凸显——医药生物行业周报（2026/02/03- 2026/02/09） ➢ 2.挖掘机1月内外销大增，龙头公司业绩预增——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 3.四大CSP厂商资本开支超预期，需求传导推动功率半导体价格上涨——电子行业周报 2026/2/2-2026/2/8 ➢ 1.开局之年首次考察，习近平总书记关注科技自立自强 ➢ 2.沪深北交易所优化再融资一揽子政策 ➢ 3.商务部召开汽车企业座谈会 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGO ...