KSTAR(002518) 长江证券·2024-11-12 11:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Kstar (002518 SZ) [3] Core Views - Kstar's Q3 2024 financial performance shows a decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 2 912 billion yuan, down 28 43% YoY, and net profit at 357 million yuan, down 48 41% YoY [1][4] - The household energy storage business is stabilizing, with signs of recovery in European demand and contributions from emerging markets like Southeast Asia, Africa, and Ukraine [5] - The charging pile business is expected to grow significantly, with entry into the Middle East market and progress in European and US certifications [5] - Data center business remains stable, with a projected 10% growth in 2025 [5] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 is 31 11%, with a net margin of 13 49%, showing slight improvement [5] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue: 10 20 billion yuan, down 18 11% YoY [4] - Q3 2024 net profit: 138 million yuan, down 27 86% YoY [4] - Q3 2024 non-GAAP net profit: 122 million yuan, down 34 87% YoY [4] - Forecasted net profit for 2024 and 2025: 480 million yuan and 597 million yuan, respectively [10] Business Outlook - The energy storage business is expected to recover gradually as downstream inventory clears and overseas customers resume orders in 2025 [5] - The charging pile business is projected to achieve high growth in 2025, driven by market expansion and certification progress [5] - The data center business is expected to grow steadily, with a 10% YoY increase in 2025 [5] Valuation Metrics - Current stock price: 19 82 yuan [6] - Forecasted PE ratios for 2024 and 2025: 24x and 19x, respectively [5] - Forecasted EPS for 2024 and 2025: 0 82 yuan and 1 03 yuan, respectively [10]