诺诚健华：奥布替尼销售略超预期，全年销售指引进一步上调至45%同比增速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the Hong Kong stock of the company and adjusts the target price to HKD 9.2, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 7.5 [2][4][12] - The A-share target price is raised to RMB 14.5, but the rating is downgraded to "Hold" due to the stock being in a reasonable valuation range [2][4][6] Core Insights - The company has raised its full-year sales guidance for the drug Orelabrutinib to a growth rate of 45% year-on-year, driven by strong sales performance and new indications being added to insurance coverage [3][4] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a significant narrowing of net losses to RMB 13.57 million, a decrease of 87.5% year-on-year, attributed to better-than-expected R&D expenses and favorable foreign exchange gains [2][3] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 278 million in Q3 2024, representing a 74% year-on-year increase, with Orelabrutinib sales contributing RMB 276 million, up 75.5% year-on-year [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, total revenue reached RMB 698 million, a 29.8% increase year-on-year, with Orelabrutinib product revenue at RMB 693 million, up 45% year-on-year [2][3] - The gross margin improved to 86% compared to 81.2% in the same period last year, while the net loss attributable to shareholders for the nine months was RMB 275 million, down 53.7% year-on-year [2][3] - The company forecasts total revenue for 2024 to be RMB 989 million, with a projected growth rate of 34% year-on-year [7][10] Clinical Development and Pipeline - The company is advancing two TYK2 inhibitors for autoimmune indications, with clinical trials for ICP-332 and ICP-488 progressing as planned [4][6] - The management expects Orelabrutinib's overseas potential for progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) indications to reach approximately USD 3 billion in sales [3][4] - Clinical trials for the ITP indication are expected to complete by 2025, with ongoing discussions with the FDA for other indications [3][4]