神火股份：云南三季度满产叠加电价回落助力盈利提升，规划项目陆续上马

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve due to full production in Yunnan and a decrease in electricity prices. New projects are also set to launch [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 28.314 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.538 billion yuan, down 13.75% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights the ongoing projects in Xinjiang and Yunnan, which are expected to enhance the company's aluminum production capacity [1][3] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 42,704 million yuan - 2023A: 37,625 million yuan (down 12% YoY) - 2024E: 39,797 million yuan (up 6% YoY) - 2025E: 44,187 million yuan (up 11% YoY) - 2026E: 45,647 million yuan (up 3% YoY) [1] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 7,571 million yuan - 2023A: 5,905 million yuan (down 22% YoY) - 2024E: 4,804 million yuan (down 19% YoY) - 2025E: 6,870 million yuan (up 43% YoY) - 2026E: 7,993 million yuan (up 16% YoY) [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 3.36 yuan - 2023A: 2.62 yuan - 2024E: 2.14 yuan - 2025E: 3.05 yuan - 2026E: 3.55 yuan [1] - Cash Flow: - 2023A: 4.97 yuan - 2024E: 8.86 yuan - 2025E: -0.17 yuan - 2026E: 7.06 yuan [1] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2022A: 36% - 2023A: 24% - 2024E: 16% - 2025E: 19% - 2026E: 18% [1] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2022A: 5.6 - 2023A: 7.2 - 2024E: 8.8 - 2025E: 6.1 - 2026E: 5.3 [1] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2022A: 2.6 - 2023A: 2.1 - 2024E: 1.8 - 2025E: 1.4 - 2026E: 1.1 [1] Operational Highlights - The company has fully resumed production in Yunnan, with electricity costs at their lowest during the wet season, contributing to profitability despite a decrease in aluminum prices [1] - Ongoing projects include wind power collaborations and coal mining developments, which are expected to further enhance production capacity [1][3] - The company is also focusing on cash dividends to strengthen shareholder returns [1]