ZAI LAB-再鼎医药：3Q24净亏损显著缩窄

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab (ZLAB.US/9688.HK) and slightly lowers the target price to $55 for US shares and HK$ 43 for Hong Kong shares [1][4]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, Zai Lab's net loss significantly narrowed to $41.67 million, a decrease of 39.7% year-over-year and 48.1% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to lower-than-expected selling and administrative expenses [1]. - Product revenue for Q3 2024 reached$ 101.8 million, representing a 47% year-over-year increase and a 1.7% quarter-over-quarter increase, aligning with consensus expectations [1]. - The gross margin for product sales was stable at 64.1%, with a slight decrease of 0.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The company continues to see strong growth in Efgartigimod, with Q3 2024 revenue of $27.3 million, a remarkable increase of 458% year-over-year and 17.6% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Zai Lab has achieved approximately 65% market potential coverage for Efgartigimod, with around 10,000 myasthenia gravis patients having used the drug, and a stable monthly addition of about 1,000 new patients [1]. Financial Summary - The report projects a narrowing of net loss to$ 260 million for 2024, with slight adjustments to the 2025 and 2026 net loss and profit forecasts based on updated financial information [1][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are $402 million,$ 651 million, and $995 million respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 50.6%, 62.2%, and 52.8% [4][5]. - The report anticipates that Zai Lab will continue to expand its product pipeline, with several key drugs expected to be commercialized in China by the end of 2024 and early 2025 [1][4]. Market Expectations - The current stock price for Zai Lab is$ 29.0, with a potential upside of 90% to the target price of $55.0 [2]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of$ 13.4 to $36.6, and the total market capitalization is approximately$ 2.885 billion [2]. - For the Hong Kong shares, the current price is HK $23.4, with a potential upside of 84% to the target price of HK$ 43.0 [3].