Flat(601865) 中银证券·2024-11-15 03:47Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a 34% year-on-year decline in performance for the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to a decrease in photovoltaic glass market prices, leading to temporary pressure on earnings. However, the supply landscape for photovoltaic glass is expected to improve, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [3][4]. - The average selling price of photovoltaic glass in Q3 2024 was approximately 13.96 RMB per square meter, reflecting a 23% decrease from Q2 2024. The inventory levels of photovoltaic glass have reached historical highs, exceeding 40 days as of the end of October 2024 [3][5]. - The report suggests that rising natural gas costs during the heating season may lead to a reduction in high-cost production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, potentially improving the supply-demand balance for photovoltaic glass [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 14,603.89 million RMB, a decrease of 8.06% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,295.65 million RMB, down 34.18% year-on-year [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 19.02%, a decline of 2.21 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 8.91%, down 3.50 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.47 RMB, 0.80 RMB, and 1.00 RMB, respectively, reflecting significant downward revisions from previous estimates [3][4]. - The report projects a revenue of 17,998 million RMB for 2024, a decrease of 16.4% compared to 2023, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 53.7 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 31.2 in 2025 and 25.0 in 2026 as earnings recover [4][6]. - The report indicates a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.6 for 2024, remaining stable in the following years [4][6].