NEW HOPE(000876) 国泰君安·2024-11-15 03:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and lowers the target price to 11.97 CNY from the previous 12.31 CNY [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights improvements in breeding efficiency and cost reduction, indicating a clear path forward. The recovery of the pig feed cycle and the company's first-mover advantage in overseas markets contribute to the stable development of its feed business [2][3]. - The company sold 1.2534 million pigs in October, representing a month-on-month increase of 5.12% and a year-on-year change of 14.82%. Revenue for the month was 2.081 billion CNY, down 9.21% month-on-month and down 11.11% year-on-year [3]. - The report projects EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 0.22 CNY and 0.64 CNY, respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.85 CNY and 1.37 CNY [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 141.703 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.1% compared to 2022. However, a significant decline of 36.9% is expected in 2024, with revenue forecasted at 89.374 billion CNY [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover significantly, reaching 1.019 billion CNY in 2024, up 308.9% from the previous year, and further increasing to 2.925 billion CNY in 2025 [4]. - The report indicates a projected net asset return of 4.0% in 2024, improving to 10.2% in 2025 [4]. Business Segments - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, assigning a 20x valuation to the feed business, 11x to the breeding business, and 18x to the food business for 2025. The estimated market value for the feed business is 28 billion CNY, breeding business at 15.4 billion CNY, food business at 4.5 billion CNY, and a 4.18% stake in Minsheng Bank valued at 6.5 billion CNY, totaling a target market value of 54.4 billion CNY [3]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of the breeding industry and the expected narrowing of the decline in pig feed production in 2025, benefiting from increased market concentration [3]. Market Position - The company is noted as one of the earliest domestic feed enterprises to establish overseas production facilities, particularly in Southeast Asia and Egypt, which provides a competitive edge in less saturated markets with higher profit margins [3].