FCDW(605189) 广发证券·2024-11-15 08:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.78 RMB per share [4] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 840 million RMB, up 19.26% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 29.47% YoY to 20 million RMB due to a 34.52 million RMB loss from cotton futures hedging [1] - Excluding non-recurring items, Q3 net profit increased by 54.93% YoY to 38 million RMB, indicating improving operational profitability [1] - Gross margin improved to 13.64% in Q1-Q3 2024, up 2.08 percentage points YoY, driven by cost advantages from the Jingzhou project [2] - The company's R&D expenses increased significantly, with R&D expense ratio rising to 4.22% in Q1-Q3 2024, up 0.86 percentage points YoY [2] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.191 billion RMB, up 20.95% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 million RMB, up 44.58% YoY [1] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 1.13 RMB in 2024 to 1.55 RMB in 2026 [2] - ROE is projected to improve from 8.6% in 2024 to 9.7% in 2026 [3] Operational Highlights - The Jingzhou project demonstrates significant cost advantages and scale effects, contributing to margin improvement [2] - The color spinning yarn project has been successfully put into operation, supporting future growth [2] - The company's inventory turnover ratio is expected to improve from 3.92 in 2023 to 5.31 in 2026 [282] Valuation - The company is valued at 14x 2024 PE, with a target price of 15.78 RMB per share [2] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decline from 8.94x in 2024 to 4.19x in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [3] Growth Prospects - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 18.2% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 4.142 billion RMB in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 232 million RMB in 2026 [3]