KDL(002850) 广发证券·2024-11-15 09:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kedali (002850 SZ) with a target price of 128 18 yuan per share [6] Core Views - Kedali's 24Q3 financial performance showed strong profitability with revenue of 3 146 billion yuan (+10 35% YoY) and net profit of 368 million yuan (+28 70% YoY) [2] - The company's gross margin was 23 42% in 24Q3, slightly down by 0 40pct QoQ, while the net margin improved to 11 68% (+0 17pct QoQ) [2] - Kedali's overseas expansion and robot business are expected to drive future growth, with a focus on harmonic reducers and other core components [4] Financial Performance - For 24Q1-Q3, Kedali achieved revenue of 8 592 billion yuan (+10 60% YoY) and net profit of 1 016 billion yuan (+27 86% YoY) [2] - The company's expense control was effective, with a 24Q1-Q3 period expense ratio of 3 59% (-0 39pct YoY) and R&D expense ratio of 5 26% (-0 33pct YoY) [3] - Kedali's 24Q3 sales expense ratio was 0 34% (-0 04pct QoQ), and the management expense ratio was 2 40% (-0 38pct QoQ) [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 13 561 billion yuan in 2024, 16 889 billion yuan in 2025, and 19 579 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - Net profit is projected to reach 1 411 billion yuan in 2024, 1 736 billion yuan in 2025, and 2 097 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - EPS is forecasted to be 5 21 yuan in 2024, 6 41 yuan in 2025, and 7 74 yuan in 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2025 PE ratio is estimated at 17 08x, with an EV/EBITDA of 10 35x [5] - ROE is expected to improve from 11 8% in 2024 to 13 3% in 2026 [5] Overseas Expansion and Robot Business - Kedali has established overseas production bases in Germany, Sweden, and Hungary to meet the capacity needs of international customers [4] - The robot business, focusing on core components like harmonic reducers, is expected to contribute to future growth [4]