阳光电源：Q3利润环比略降，光储龙头全球竞争力强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, reflecting a positive outlook based on its strong market position and growth potential [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the solar and energy storage sectors, benefiting from the rising global demand for energy storage solutions. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 5.31, 6.47, and 7.42 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.8, 13.8, and 12.0 [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 499.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and a net profit of 76.0 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 189.3 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 31.3%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 72.25 billion yuan in 2023 to 81.77 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 120.03 billion yuan [5][6]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 9.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.00 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected net profit of 15.38 billion yuan by 2026 [5][6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 28.9% in 2024, decreasing to 23.5% by 2026, indicating a strong but slightly declining profitability trend [5][6]. Market Position and Growth - The company’s inverter shipments are expected to reach 108 GW for the first three quarters of 2024, a 29% increase year-on-year, outperforming the industry growth rate. Energy storage shipments are projected at approximately 17 GWh, with Q3 shipments exceeding 9 GWh, marking a 144% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - The company’s GDR application has been accepted, which will support its global expansion plans, including new production capacities for energy storage and inverter equipment [4].