证 券 研 究 报 告 阳光电源（300274）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（首次） 一季度业绩超预期，储能业务有望延续高速 增长 公司研究 太阳能 2025 年 04 月 30 日 目标价：76.82 元 当前价：60.60 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：黄麟 邮箱：huanglin1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080001 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 77,857 | 85,243 | 96,689 | 108,950 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.8% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 12.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 11,036 | 12,251 | 13,770 | 15,184 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.9% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 10.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 5.32 | 5.91 | 6.64 | 7 ...

看好公司主业长期发展。1）公司强化电力电子、构网支撑等技术前瞻性研究， 凭借低成本创新能力，不断推出性价比优势突出的电能变换产品，公司已建立 的渠道、品牌、产品力壁垒，构成了竞争护城河。2）公司发力光风储电氢多 个赛道，在光伏逆变器领域公司积累的技术、渠道等方面的协同将支持各项主 业共同发展，多点开花。 盈利预测：预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 118.74/135.87/155.41 亿元，EPS 分别为 5.73/6.55/7.50 元，当前股价对应 2025-2027 年 PE 值分别 为 10、9 和 8 倍。维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业贸易壁垒增加；下游需求或不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 阳光电源（300274.SZ）：逆变器+ 储能出货持续增长，关税影响可控 ——2024 年年报及 25 年一季报业绩点评 财务要点：公司 24 年全年实现营业收入 778.57 亿，同比增长 7.76%，实现归 母净利 110.36 亿元，同比增长 16.92%。25 年 Q1 实现营业收入 190.36 亿元， 同比增长 50.92%，实现归母净利 38.26 亿元，同比增长 82.52%。 ...

阳光电源（300274.SZ）：逆变器+ 储能出货持续增长，关税影响可控 ——2024 年年报及 25 年一季报业绩点评 看好公司主业长期发展。1）公司强化电力电子、构网支撑等技术前瞻性研究， 凭借低成本创新能力，不断推出性价比优势突出的电能变换产品，公司已建立 的渠道、品牌、产品力壁垒，构成了竞争护城河。2）公司发力光风储电氢多 个赛道，在光伏逆变器领域公司积累的技术、渠道等方面的协同将支持各项主 业共同发展，多点开花。 盈利预测：预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 118.74/135.87/155.41 亿元，EPS 分别为 5.73/6.55/7.50 元，当前股价对应 2025-2027 年 PE 值分别 为 10、9 和 8 倍。维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业贸易壁垒增加；下游需求或不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 财务指标预测 财务要点：公司 24 年全年实现营业收入 778.57 亿，同比增长 7.76%，实现归 母净利 110.36 亿元，同比增长 16.92%。25 年 Q1 实现营业收入 190.36 亿元， 同比增长 50.92%，实现归母净利 38.26 亿元，同比增长 8 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 储能业务高速发展，光储龙头地位稳固 ——阳光电源（300274.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司实现营收 778.57 亿元，同比+7.76%；实现归母净利润 110.36 亿元，同比+16.92%；实现扣非归 母净利润 106.93 亿元，同比+16.03%。2025 年 Q1 公司实现营收 190.36 亿元， 同比+50.92%；实现归母净利润 38.26 亿元，同比+82.52%；实现扣非归母净利 润 36.76 亿元，同比+76.46%。 点评： 技术进步叠加渠道拓展，光伏逆变器业务营收稳健增长。2024 年，公司光伏逆 变器业务全球发货量 147GW，实现营收 291.27 亿元，同比+5.33%；毛利率为 30.9%，同比-1.94pct。2024 年，公司大功率组串逆变器 SG320HX、1+X 模块 化逆变器在全球各类场景中得到广泛深入应用；公司面向国内工商业用户发布了 新一代大功率组串逆变器 SG150CX-CN 和户用逆变器 SGT-P2-CN；公司加 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Sungrow Power Supply from Buy to Neutral, with a target price reduced from CNY 100 to CNY 58 [3][5][21]. Core Insights - The earnings for 1Q25 exceeded expectations due to strong growth in the energy storage system (ESS) segment, with revenue growth of 50.9% year-on-year [1]. - Despite strong shipment forecasts for 2025, the report expresses caution regarding potential earnings due to tariff headwinds and increased competition in emerging markets [2][3]. - The company has suspended ESS shipments to the US market, which typically offers better gross margins, impacting future earnings [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Sungrow reported 4Q24 revenue of CNY 27.9 billion, an 8.0% year-on-year increase, and 1Q25 revenue of CNY 19.0 billion, a 50.9% year-on-year increase [1]. - The net profit for 4Q24 was CNY 3,437 million, up 55% year-on-year, and for 1Q25, it was CNY 3,826 million, up 83% year-on-year [1]. Shipment Forecasts - For 2025, solar and ESS shipments are estimated at 160GW (up 9% year-on-year) and over 40GWh (up 43% year-on-year), respectively [2]. - The company reported solar inverter and ESS shipments of 147GW and 28GWh in 2024, aligning with previous estimates [1]. Valuation Metrics - The new target price of CNY 58 is based on a P/E ratio of 11.3x for 2025F, reflecting a decrease from the previous 16x due to anticipated margin pressures [3][13]. - The report indicates a projected normalized EPS decline from CNY 5.67 to CNY 5.12 for 2025F [3][4]. Market Context - The report highlights intensified competition in the Middle East market, which may further limit Sungrow's shipment and earnings growth in 2H25 [2]. - The company is facing challenges from increased anti-dumping and countervailing duties affecting solar module shipments to the US [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth in overseas business [1][6]. - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 778.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110.36 billion yuan, up 16.92% year-on-year [6]. - The company's R&D investment increased significantly, reaching 3.164 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 29.26%, with R&D expenses accounting for approximately 4.06% of revenue [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 190.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.92%, and a net profit of 38.26 billion yuan, up 82.52% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.94%, an increase of 2.76 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 14.47%, up 1.17 percentage points [6]. Business Development - The company is focusing on strengthening its wind energy business, with significant advancements in wind power conversion technology [4][8]. - The global shipment of photovoltaic inverters reached 147 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with revenue from power electronic conversion devices amounting to 291.27 billion yuan, up 5.33% year-on-year [6]. Market Expansion - The company has expanded its global presence, with products sold in over 180 countries and regions, and a growing number of service points worldwide [6]. - The energy storage system business saw a revenue increase of 40.21% year-on-year, reaching 249.59 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 36.69% [6]. Future Projections - The company expects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 6.09 yuan, 6.96 yuan, and 7.80 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of approximately 10, 9, and 8 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in executive compensation at Sungrow Power Supply, particularly for Vice Chairman Gu Yilei and Senior Vice President Wu Jiamao, reflecting the company's strong performance in the energy storage sector and overall growth in revenue and profit despite challenges in the photovoltaic industry [1][4][5]. Executive Compensation - Gu Yilei and Wu Jiamao are the only two executives at Sungrow Power Supply with salaries exceeding 10 million yuan, earning 17.5 million yuan and 12.94 million yuan respectively, which is significantly higher than the average executive salary of 5.853 million yuan [1][2]. - Both executives received stock grants as part of the 2023 restricted stock incentive plan, with Gu Yilei being granted 218,400 shares and Wu Jiamao 119,000 shares, at a grant price of 30.18 yuan per share [2]. - Over the past five years, Gu Yilei and Wu Jiamao's salaries have increased dramatically, with Gu's salary rising 11 times and Wu's by 8.6 times since 2019 [3]. Company Performance - Sungrow Power Supply reported a revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and a net profit of 11 billion yuan, up 16.9% [4][5]. - The company's inverter shipments reached 147 GW, a 13% increase year-on-year, while the energy storage business saw revenue growth exceeding 40% and a shipment volume of 28 GWh, up 167% [5]. Market Position and Challenges - Sungrow Power Supply is recognized as the global leader in energy storage systems, with a gross margin of 36.69%, which is significantly higher than its competitors [5]. - The company faces challenges in the U.S. market due to uncertainties related to tariffs, which could impact its shipment targets for 2025 [6]. - Management anticipates a compound annual growth rate of over 10% for the photovoltaic market from 2024 to 2030, despite short-term pressures due to tariffs and market conditions [6].

证券代码：300274 证券简称：阳光电源 公告编号：2025-041 阳光电源股份有限公司 | | | | | | | 已质押股份 | | 未质押股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 本次质押 | 占其 | 占公 | 情况 | | 情况 | | | 股东 名称 | 持股数量 （万股） | 持股 比例 | 后质押股 份数量 | 所持 股份 | 司总 股本 | 已质押股 份限售和 | 占已质 | 未质押股 份限售和 | 占未质 | | | | | | | | | 押股份 | | 押股份 | | | | | （万股） | 比例 | 比例 | 冻结数量 | 比例 | 冻结数量 | 比例 | | | | | | | | （万股） | | （万股） | | | 曹仁贤 | 63,141.12 | 30.46% | 3,506.70 | 5.55% | 1.69% | 2,941.10 | 83.87% | 44,414.74 | 74.48% | | 苏蕾 | 367.6009 | 0.18% | 0 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [4][15]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance significantly exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit for 2024 projected at RMB 77.857 billion and RMB 11.036 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8% and 17% [7][12]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in operating cash flow, which reached RMB 12.068 billion, a 73% year-on-year increase [7]. - Despite a recent stock price decline, the report suggests that this has adequately reflected current uncertainties related to tariffs and competition [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 72.251 billion in 2023, RMB 77.857 billion in 2024, and RMB 93.943 billion in 2025, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 79.5%, 7.8%, and 20.7% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 9.440 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.036 billion in 2024, and further to RMB 12.534 billion in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 162.7%, 16.9%, and 13.6% respectively [3][12]. - The report notes a significant increase in gross margin, which reached 29.9% in Q1 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has seen a notable increase in its market share in the energy storage sector, with revenue from storage systems expected to grow by 40% in 2024 [7]. - The report mentions that the company's U.S. business accounts for 10-20% of its revenue, with current operations being affected by tariffs and competition from other manufacturers [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's overseas production capacity for energy storage systems will come online by the end of the year, which should help mitigate some of the competitive pressures [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][10]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance significantly exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit for 2024 projected at RMB 77.857 billion and RMB 11.036 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 8% and 17% [7]. - The stock price has undergone a substantial correction, which is believed to have adequately reflected current uncertainties, including tariff impacts and competitive pressures [7]. - The target price has been adjusted down to RMB 72.50 from RMB 104.80, reflecting a revised valuation based on a 12x P/E ratio for 2025 earnings [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 72,251 million in 2023, RMB 77,857 million in 2024, RMB 93,943 million in 2025E, RMB 101,774 million in 2026E, and RMB 110,947 million in 2027E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 79.5% in 2023 and 7.8% in 2024 [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 9,440 million in 2023 to RMB 12,534 million in 2025E, with a significant year-on-year increase of 162.7% in 2023 [3][12]. - The company has maintained a strong gross margin, with a projected gross margin of 29.9% in 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow, reaching RMB 121 billion in Q1, a 73% year-on-year increase [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from RMB 4.55 in 2023 to RMB 6.05 in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 13.6% [3][12]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 92,958.54 million, with a 52-week high of RMB 119.19 and a low of RMB 55.70 [6].