Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric new energy sector, including CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The electric new energy sector's overall fund holding ratio has decreased, with a notable decline in the holdings of new energy vehicle and power equipment sectors, while the industrial control sector saw a slight increase [6][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy, technology, and demand factors influencing the various sub-sectors within the electric new energy industry, leading to different performance expectations [6][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Fund Holdings in Electric New Energy Sector - As of Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio for the electric new energy sector is 8.73%, down by 0.93 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.83 percentage points year-on-year [9][14]. - The market capitalization of the electric new energy sector accounts for 5.92% of the total market capitalization, with a slight decrease of 0.28 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [9][14]. 2. Sub-sector Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the new energy vehicle sector is 7.24%, down by 1.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.30 percentage points year-on-year [18][21]. - The new energy power generation sector has a fund holding ratio of 2.19%, with a minor decrease of 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [18][24]. - The power equipment and industrial control sector's fund holding ratio is 1.28%, showing a slight increase of 0.14 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [18][26]. 3. Investment Recommendations 3.1 New Energy Vehicles - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear competitive advantages and improving profitability in the battery segment, such as CATL and A123 Systems [28]. - It also highlights the importance of materials and components in the supply chain, recommending companies like Keda and others [28]. 3.2 New Energy Power Generation - The report indicates a shift from policy-driven to market-driven demand for energy storage, recommending companies involved in energy storage integration and battery production [29]. - It emphasizes the growth potential in wind energy, particularly offshore wind, and suggests monitoring companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind [30][32]. 3.3 Power Equipment and Industrial Control - The report identifies AIDC as a growth driver for power equipment demand, recommending companies with strong fundamentals and competitive pricing [34]. - It also notes the increasing importance of high-voltage construction in domestic demand, suggesting companies like XJ Electric and others [34][35].

| 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▲ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159122 | 创业板新能源ETF富国 | 1.026 | -0.028 -2.66% | | | 159149 | 创业板新能源ETF工银 | 0.984 | -0.025 | -2.48% | | 159261 | 创业板新能源ETF鹏华 | 1.600 | -0.042 | -2.56% | | 159368 | 创业板新能源ETF华夏 | 1.523 | -0.038 | -2.43% | | 159387 | 创业板新能源ETF国泰 | 1.685 | -0.041 | -2.38% | 有券商表示，短期市场正处于关键的政策衔接与转换期。新能源车市场正逐步过渡至依靠产品力与常态化消费节奏的 新阶段，看好以下方向：一是具备差异化和产品力的高端化厂商，其产品受补贴规则变化以及购置税减半影响相对较 小，且在我国乘用车市场高端化以及自主品牌价格带向上突破的背景下有望受益；二是在出海市场加大布局，有望通 过海外销量高增长&高毛利带动下实现业绩修复的自主车企。 每日经济新闻 新能源概 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic concept stocks have weakened, with Maiwei Co., Ltd. dropping over 6%, Jiejia Weichuang falling over 5%, and both Sunshine Power and Deye Co., Ltd. declining over 4% [1] - Affected by the market, photovoltaic-related ETFs have decreased by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Various photovoltaic ETFs are showing declines, with the E Fund Photovoltaic ETF at 1.259, down 2.55%, and the Jiashi Photovoltaic ETF at 1.160, down 2.52% [2] - A brokerage firm indicates that China has submitted applications for over 200,000 satellite constellations, marking a new phase of large-scale deployment in commercial space, which will directly drive long-term demand for space photovoltaics [2] Group 3 - The current valuation of the photovoltaic industry remains at a historically low level [3] - Future policies regarding product sales price measures to combat internal competition, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and improved product quality standards are expected to be implemented [3] - The competitive landscape and industrial chain ecology of the photovoltaic industry are likely to optimize, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery [3]

需求端：资本开支延续高增态势。1)海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态势，总和达 996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。2)国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支均显放 缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三季度业 绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降24.05%、环比 降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。 爱建证券近日发布数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态 势，总和达996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支 均显放缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三 季度业绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降 24.05%、环比降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 数据中心已成为电力设备行业核心增量应 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 27 日 行业及产业 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：台积电 2025Q4 营收同比增长，DRAM 价格持续上涨》 2026-01-21 《锂电行业跟踪：2025 年 12 月国内电池产量 和装车量同比高增，六氟磷酸锂价格下降》 2026-01-21 《光储行业跟踪：光伏出口退税将取消，电池 片价格持续上涨》2026-01-21 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：台积电 2025Q4 营收创新高，DRAM 涨价趋势延续》 2026-01-14 《锂电行业跟踪：2025 年 11 月新能源车销量 高景气延续，碳酸锂价格快速上行》 2026-01-13 证券分析师 ——光储行业跟踪 12 月光伏组件出口同比高增，储能价格 持续上涨 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：1）光伏组件：据 SMM，2025 年 11 月光伏组件整体产量环比 10 月下降 2.43%。预 计 12 月组件产量继续大幅下降，终端需求也将回归冷淡时期，预计环比 11 月开工下降 14.77％。 ...

Core Viewpoints - Morgan Stanley has identified Sungrow as a top pick in the Asia-Pacific utility and renewable energy sector for 2026, maintaining an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 250 RMB, up from a current price of 162.08 RMB. The report highlights two main advantages: the company's proprietary PCS technology and its focus on high-end markets, which provide strong growth resilience. Additionally, China's provincial electricity reform policies and potential AIDC storage orders are expected to catalyze performance growth [2]. Group 1: Key Insights from Field Research - The PCS technology is crucial for breaking into the AIDC storage market, as it meets the stringent response time requirements. Sungrow plans to sign and deliver small-scale AIDC storage orders by 2026, with significant growth expected in 2027. The company has already gained relevant experience through its "photovoltaic + storage base load" demonstration projects [3]. - Global energy storage installations are projected to grow over 40% in 2026, with significant regional disparities. The Chinese market is expected to double its installation capacity compared to 2025, while the Middle East, other Asian regions, and the EU are anticipated to see growth exceeding 50%. The U.S. market, however, is expected to slow due to OBBB policy impacts [6]. - Three key catalysts for Sungrow's performance growth have emerged: accelerated certification processes and order placements for AIDC storage products, the introduction of peak and valley pricing policies in more Chinese provinces, and discussions on energy transition in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, which may further unlock industry potential [7]. Group 2: Investor Questions and Answers - Sungrow's competitive advantage in the AIDC storage market lies in its high reliability and response speed, with a relatively stable competitive landscape due to high technical barriers. As the second-largest player in the global storage market, Sungrow's financing capabilities for inverters and storage systems position it as a preferred supplier for U.S. data centers [8]. - Energy storage can alleviate power supply tensions by balancing load during peak and off-peak periods. The demand for storage systems is expected to rise as power supply issues intensify in the U.S. due to AIDC deployments [9]. - The U.S. Department of Energy's proposed rules regarding large power loads accessing the grid may expedite the integration of storage systems, as mixed facilities that include storage are likely to benefit from faster grid access processes [11]. - To comply with OBBB policy requirements, Sungrow plans to establish a joint venture with non-Chinese partners to procure non-Chinese batteries, thereby reducing the Chinese component ratio in its storage systems [12]. - The reduction of battery export tax rebates in China is expected to have a limited impact on Sungrow's profit margins, as the company has included price adjustment clauses in most contracts to pass on additional costs to customers [13]. - Despite rising input costs, market expectations for Sungrow's gross margin are deemed reasonable, with a projected decline from 38% in 2025 to 33.5% in 2027, reflecting a 5 percentage point drop [14][15]. - Sungrow is expected to receive approval for its Hong Kong IPO in February 2026, with funds allocated for next-generation inverter R&D, overseas projects, digital upgrades, and operational support [16]. - The competitive landscape in China's storage market is intense, leading to a projected decline in Sungrow's market share from approximately 10% in 2024 to around 5% in 2025. However, the demand for high-quality products is expected to rebound in 2026, benefiting Sungrow [17]. - The AIDC storage business is anticipated to yield significant profit growth, with projections indicating low double-digit growth in 2027 if Sungrow captures one-third of the U.S. AIDC storage market [18]. - The AIDC high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power supply equipment market is projected to reach 200 billion RMB by 2030, with Sungrow potentially capturing a 20% market share, leading to a per-share valuation increment of 26.4 RMB by 2026 [20].

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable amounts withdrawn from companies across different sectors, particularly in the electric equipment and battery industries [1][2][3]. Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - TBEA Co., Ltd. experienced a capital outflow of 1.452 billion yuan, with a decline in stock price of 4.09% [2]. - Zhejiang Wenlian reported a capital outflow of 992 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 1.28% [2]. - Hunan Silver saw a capital outflow of 900 million yuan, with a stock price increase of 2.82% [2]. - Tongling Nonferrous Metals had a capital outflow of 873 million yuan, with a stock price increase of 2.91% [2]. - Dongfang Fortune experienced a capital outflow of 817 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 1.63% [2]. Group 2: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Leading Intelligent reported a capital outflow of 733 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 2.7% [2]. - Tianji Co., Ltd. faced a capital outflow of 666 million yuan, with a significant stock price drop of 9.09% [2]. - Xinyi Communication had a capital outflow of 613 million yuan, with a stock price increase of 0.73% [2]. - Tianci Materials saw a capital outflow of 570 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 5.28% [2]. - Wangsu Science & Technology experienced a capital outflow of 558 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 3.56% [2]. Group 3: Other Companies with Capital Outflows - Longi Green Energy reported a capital outflow of 547 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 0.93% [3]. - Dufeng Co., Ltd. faced a capital outflow of 533 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 7.35% [3]. - China Satellite had a capital outflow of 515 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 1.62% [3]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology experienced a capital outflow of 458 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 0.89% [3]. - Salt Lake Potash reported a capital outflow of 437 million yuan, with a stock price decrease of 2.67% [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industry sectors mentioned [2]. Core Insights - The overall industry strategy focuses on the simultaneous rise in energy storage volume and price, with ongoing themes in space and AI [3]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain is entering an upward cycle, benefiting companies like CATL and EVE Energy due to the electrification upgrade and optimization of energy storage patterns [3]. - By the end of December 2025, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure is expected to reach 20.092 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.7% [3]. - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 640 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 82.9%, with CATL maintaining a leading position [3][25]. - The solid-state battery sector is entering a critical phase of engineering and industrialization, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Peking University Technology benefiting [4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage and New Energy - The energy storage trend continues to improve, with companies like Sungrow Power and Huaneng Power benefiting from a significant increase in domestic procurement, which exceeded 100 GWh for the first time [5]. - The average price of lithium battery storage systems has rebounded by 6.39% to 0.5226 yuan/Wh [5]. - AI expansion and global grid upgrades are driving demand for power equipment, benefiting companies like TBEA and Sanyuan Electric [5]. Lithium Carbonate and Battery Materials - The supply and demand for lithium carbonate are exceeding expectations, with companies like Salt Lake Potash and Hunan Youneng benefiting from favorable market conditions [4]. - The cost of phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials has increased, with processing fees rising by 318.7 yuan/ton compared to November averages [4][27]. AI and Robotics in New Energy - The integration of AI and humanoid robots in the new energy sector is gaining traction, with companies like Zhejiang Rongtai and Keda Li benefiting from advancements in robotics [7]. - Tesla's shift towards becoming a robotics company is expected to create new growth cycles, with significant implications for the automotive industry [7][26]. Market Trends and Projections - The report highlights that the global energy storage battery shipment is expected to reach 1,090 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 70% [25]. - The market for commercial energy storage products is evolving, with larger capacity batteries becoming mainstream and driving innovation in the sector [29].

| 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 艾罗能源 | 688717.SH | 14.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 140 | 3 | 强烈推荐 | | 固德威 | 688390.SH | 22.5 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 102 | 8 | 未予评级 | | 阳光电源 | 300274.SZ | 338.0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 25 | 8 | 强烈推荐 | | 德业股份 | 605117.SH | 80.5 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 22 | 10 | 增持 | | 儒竞科技 | 301525.SZ | 8.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 41 | 3 | 未予评级 | | 首航新能 | 301658.SZ | 13.7 | 0.7 | - | - | 4 | 未予评级 | | 锦浪科技 | 300763.SZ | 33.7 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 29 | 4 | 未予评级 | | 科士达 | 002518.S ...

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. ESS Battery ~640Gwh FY25 shipment, >90% y/y; December shipment review Global ESS battery demand accelerated in FY25, with shipments up >90% y/y to ~640 GWh. December shipments remain firm at 85 GWh with 34% m/m ...