MILKYWAY(603713) 兴业证券·2024-11-17 02:19Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 Q3 revenue reached 3.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.90%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 million yuan, up 19.88% year-on-year [2] - The company's performance is gradually becoming more certain, and its valuation is awaiting a recovery [2] - The company's core logistics business has significant asset and operational barriers, with steady growth in its new business areas [4] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 28.96 billion yuan (+23.26% YoY), 30.97 billion yuan (+42.15% YoY), and 35.61 billion yuan (+14.90% YoY) respectively [3] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders: 151 million yuan (+40.62% YoY), 160 million yuan (+9.58% YoY), and 179 million yuan (+19.88% YoY) respectively [3] - Gross profit for 2024 Q1-Q3: 336.7 million yuan, 337.0 million yuan, and 384.4 million yuan respectively [3] Future Outlook - Traditional business is stabilizing, with slow improvement in chemical-related indicators (e.g., chemical plant operating rates and chemical price indices) [4] - New business areas are actively expanding, including digitalization (e.g., cloud warehousing, in-plant logistics, and the "Lingyuansu" platform) and new fields such as air freight, consolidation services, and transformation in customs affairs [4] - The company is exploring growth opportunities in new energy, pesticides, personal care, and food sectors [4] - Cost and expense improvements are ongoing, with a 4.43% expense ratio for 2024 Q1-Q3, down 0.46 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company is cautiously expanding its global presence in Southeast Asia and North America, with rapid growth in FOB designated cargo volumes in the MGF North America region [4] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 600 million yuan, 710 million yuan, and 870 million yuan, respectively [5] - The PE ratio based on the closing price on November 11 is 16.4x, 13.9x, and 11.3x for 2024-2026, respectively [5] Key Financial Metrics Income Statement - 2024E revenue: 120.96 billion yuan (+24.0% YoY), 2025E: 140.79 billion yuan (+16.4% YoY), 2026E: 160.10 billion yuan (+13.7% YoY) [6] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders: 603 million yuan (+39.7% YoY), 2025E: 711 million yuan (+17.9% YoY), 2026E: 872 million yuan (+22.8% YoY) [6] - Gross margin: 10.8% (2024E), 11.0% (2025E), 11.2% (2026E) [6] Balance Sheet - Total assets: 111.24 billion yuan (2024E), 122.37 billion yuan (2025E), 132.97 billion yuan (2026E) [10] - Total liabilities: 67.57 billion yuan (2024E), 66.77 billion yuan (2025E), 69.68 billion yuan (2026E) [10] - Shareholders' equity: 43.66 billion yuan (2024E), 55.59 billion yuan (2025E), 63.29 billion yuan (2026E) [10] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow: 704 million yuan (2024E), 712 million yuan (2025E), 472 million yuan (2026E) [10] - Net cash change: -74 million yuan (2024E), -4 million yuan (2025E), 323 million yuan (2026E) [10] Valuation Ratios - PE ratio: 22.9x (2023A), 16.4x (2024E), 13.9x (2025E), 11.3x (2026E) [6] - PB ratio: 2.5x (2023A), 2.2x (2024E), 1.9x (2025E), 1.7x (2026E) [10]