COL(300364) 兴业证券·2024-11-17 03:50Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 808 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20.76%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 188 million yuan [4]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the exclusion of CMS from the consolidated financial statements, which led to a reduction in cultural income [4]. - The short drama business continues to grow, with significant revenue increases in overseas markets, particularly in Japan [4]. - The company is actively developing its IP derivatives and has launched an AI writing platform that enhances content creation capabilities [4]. - Profit forecasts have been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 being 0.08, 0.99, and 1.52 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong outlook for overseas short drama and AI business development [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 1,247 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, with a projected net profit of 8 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 91.3% [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 45.3% in 2024 to 48.6% in 2026 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to recover from 0.6% in 2024 to 10.1% in 2026 [5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be extremely high in 2024 at 2,678.1 times, decreasing to 136.6 times by 2026 [5].