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明阳智能:Q3经营短暂承压,风机盈利有望持续修复
601615MYSE(601615) 长江证券·2024-11-18 02:35

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million yuan, down 35% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19%, and the net profit was approximately 150 million yuan, down 75% year-on-year [5][6]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a shift in wind turbine shipment structure, with total shipments of 7.70 GW in the first three quarters, an increase of 11% year-on-year. The land-based wind turbine shipments were 6.35 GW, showing significant growth, while offshore wind turbine shipments were 1.35 GW, a decrease of about 32% [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was approximately 10.3%, with the gross margin for wind turbine and accessories sales at 8.01%, showing a slight improvement compared to the first half of the year. The gross margin for wind turbine manufacturing reached 7.9%, an increase of over 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. - The company’s inventory at the end of Q3 2024 was approximately 11 billion yuan, with contract liabilities of about 8.5 billion yuan, both showing slight increases [7]. - The company added 16.98 GW of new orders in the first three quarters, with a total executable order capacity of 34.12 GW. The land-based bidding prices are expected to stabilize, and with the anticipated increase in domestic wind power installations in 2025, the company is expected to achieve growth in both volume and profit [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 20.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 800 million yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue was 8.4 billion yuan, and net profit was approximately 150 million yuan [5][6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was about 10.3%, with improvements in the gross margins for both wind turbine sales and manufacturing [6][7]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from stabilizing land-based wind turbine bidding prices and increased domestic wind power installations in 2025, which may lead to growth in both volume and profit [7].