ZANYU TECHNOLOGY(002637) 浙商证券·2024-11-18 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The supply-demand imbalance in palm oil drives price increases, and the company is expected to benefit from this performance elasticity [2][3] - The expansion of the Dukuda base will bring growth and the layout of high-value products like OPO will enhance profitability [3][49] - The company's daily chemical business is gradually taking shape and is expected to enter a performance realization phase [4] Summary by Sections Palm Oil Supply-Demand Imbalance - Since September, palm oil prices have risen sharply from 8,217 RMB/ton to 10,143 RMB/ton, a cumulative increase of 23.45% [2][23] - The supply side has seen a seasonal decline in production due to drought in Indonesia and Malaysia, while demand remains strong due to Indonesia's B35 biodiesel policy [2][27] - The company's historical performance is positively correlated with palm oil prices, indicating that the current price increase is likely to enhance performance elasticity [2][41] Dukuda Base Expansion - The Dukuda base in Indonesia has significant advantages in palm oil procurement, production costs, and tax policies, contributing to strong profitability [3][43] - The base achieved a net profit of 157 million RMB in 2023, with a capacity utilization rate exceeding 95% [3][43] - The company is actively promoting the expansion of the Dukuda base, which is expected to drive a new round of growth in its oil chemical business [3][43] Daily Chemical Business Development - The company is a leading player in the domestic daily chemical sector, with rapid expansion in surfactants and OEM businesses [4][52] - Surfactant capacity increased from 800,000 tons/year in 2020 to 1,200,000 tons/year in 2023, while OEM/ODM processing capacity rose from 100,000 tons/year in 2022 to 1,100,000 tons/year in 2023 [4][52] - Despite the rapid increase in capacity leading to higher depreciation costs and a decline in overall profitability, the company is focusing on improving capacity utilization and optimizing product structure [4][52] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 223 million RMB, 358 million RMB, and 481 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.76, and 1.02 RMB [5][53] - The current price corresponds to PE ratios of 20.07, 12.48, and 9.29 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5][53] - The company is positioned to benefit from rising palm oil prices, the expansion of the Dukuda base, and the stabilization of profitability in its daily chemical business, leading to an expected gradual improvement in performance [5][53]