SANY(600031) Guoxin Securities·2024-11-19 00:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][20]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to recover, benefiting from the resurgence in the construction machinery sector. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue increased by 3.92% year-on-year to 58.361 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 19.66% to 4.868 billion yuan. The significant growth in Q3 2024 was driven by a low base from the previous year and effective cost control, leading to a net profit margin increase of 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [2][3][4]. - The company is actively advancing its electrification and globalization strategies. It has seen a steady increase in its overseas market share, with notable growth in Africa and stable performance in Europe and Asia. The company has launched over 80 new energy products in 2024, focusing on electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel technologies [2][3][4]. - The construction machinery market is stabilizing, with domestic excavator sales showing a year-on-year increase of 9.80% from January to October 2024, indicating a recovery in demand. The company’s export sales of excavators also returned to growth in October 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.56% [2][3][4]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 76.635 billion yuan, 84.717 billion yuan, and 96.206 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 3.5%, 10.5%, and 13.6% [3][24]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 6.055 billion yuan, 7.738 billion yuan, and 9.618 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 33.7%, 27.8%, and 24.3% [3][24]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.71 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.13 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][24]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the forecasted years are 25.5, 20.0, and 16.1 [3][24].