有色金属行业：Bald Hill矿山关停，锂矿产能继续出清

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The Bald Hill mine has entered a closure and maintenance phase, impacting lithium supply [1] - Domestic policies continue to support the market, with expected price elasticity for minor metals, particularly in rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten [1] - Short-term demand for rare earths is gradually recovering, with increasing uncertainty on the supply side, leading to a price rebound [1] - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and high demand in the photovoltaic sector [1] - Tin prices are anticipated to increase as semiconductor demand recovers and photovoltaic sector remains strong [1] Market Review - The small metal prices have shown divergence this week, with lithium carbonate prices increasing by 5.26% to 80,000 CNY/ton [1] - The domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 0.94% to 420,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide fell by 2.86% [1] - Tin prices on SHFE decreased by 6.61% and LME tin fell by 10.21% [1] - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 0.68%, while antimony concentrate prices remained stable [1] Demand Trends - The photovoltaic sector is entering a peak season, with domestic new installations in September 2024 reaching 20.89 GW, a year-on-year increase of 32% [1] - In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales in October reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48% and 49.6% [1] - Battery production in October totaled 113.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 45.5% [1] - The production of cathode materials in October was 298,800 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.39% [1] Lithium Market - Lithium prices have rebounded, with the main contract price increasing by 0.90% to 78,300 CNY/ton [1] - The domestic price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 80,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 5.26% increase [1] - The supply side shows a weekly production of 14,507 tons of lithium carbonate, with social inventory decreasing [1] - The Bald Hill mine's closure signals potential further production cuts as lithium prices decline [1] Rare Earth Market - The uncertainty in Myanmar's supply continues, with expectations for gradual price increases in rare earths [1] - The domestic price of dysprosium oxide is 1.7 million CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.86% [1] - The price of antimony concentrate remains stable at 125,000 CNY/ton, while antimony ingot prices are at 146,900 CNY/ton [1] Tin Market - Tin prices are expected to trend upwards due to recovering demand and supply constraints [1] - SHFE tin prices closed at 243,500 CNY/ton, down 6.61% from the previous week [1] - The import volume of tin ore in September was 7,873 tons, a decrease of 9% month-on-month [1]