跨资产观察周报：取消出口退税，后市影响几何？

Group 1 - The report discusses the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024, which includes 24 specific aluminum product codes [1][17]. - Export tax rebates have been a significant policy since 1985, contributing to China's position as the world's largest goods trader, with rebates increasing from 1.04 trillion yuan in 2012 to 1.71 trillion yuan in 2023 [18]. - Historical analysis shows that the cancellation of export tax rebates in 2007 led to a significant decline in aluminum exports, with aluminum alloy hollow profiles experiencing a 22% year-on-year drop in July 2007 [20][23]. Group 2 - The impact of the recent cancellation of export tax rebates varies by industry; while aluminum and copper industries may face short-term cost increases and profit declines, it could encourage a shift towards higher value-added products in the long run [29][30]. - The solar and battery industries will still benefit from some level of tax rebate, helping maintain their competitiveness in international markets despite a reduction in rebate rates [29][30]. - The report indicates that the overall economic environment is showing signs of stabilization, with industrial production and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing remaining strong, supported by fiscal policy [42][43].