房地产行业统计局数据点评：销售改善，政策刺激显效果

Industry Investment Rating - The industry maintains an Overweight rating [1] Core Views - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with sales area and sales amount improving in October 2024, driven by policy relaxation and market confidence restoration [6][19] - Investment in the real estate sector continues to decline, with new construction starts falling, while completion data shows a slight improvement [7][33] - Funding sources for real estate developers have shown a slight recovery, with expectations of further improvement due to policy support [8][37] - Policy relaxation continues, with housing prices showing a year-on-year decline, but the pace of decline is expected to stabilize [38] Key Company Performance - Poly Development: Current stock price is 10.11 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 1.53 in 2022 to 1.27 in 2026, and a Buy rating [2] - China Merchants Property Operation & Service: Current stock price is 10.95 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 0.56 in 2022 to 1.19 in 2026, and a Buy rating [2] - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services: Current stock price is 30.75 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 0.97 in 2022 to 2.23 in 2026, and a Buy rating [2] - Poly Property: Current stock price is 31.30 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 2.01 in 2022 to 3.93 in 2026, and a Buy rating [3] Industry Macro Data Summary - From January to October 2024, the sales area of commercial housing was 77,930 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, with residential sales area down by 17.7% [15] - The sales amount of commercial housing was 7,685.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, with residential sales amount down by 22.0% [15] - National real estate development investment was 8,630.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with residential investment down by 10.4% [15] Sales Recovery and Policy Impact - Sales area and sales amount in October 2024 showed significant improvement, with sales area up by 1.3 percentage points and sales amount up by 1.8 percentage points compared to September 2024 [19] - Policy relaxation, including lower mortgage rates and relaxed purchase restrictions, has contributed to the recovery in sales [19] Investment and Construction Trends - Real estate investment in January-October 2024 decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, with new construction starts down by 22.6% and completion area down by 23.9% [33] - Despite the decline in investment, the completion area showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.5 percentage points compared to September 2024 [33] Funding Sources and Future Outlook - Funding sources for real estate developers improved slightly, with a 0.8 percentage point increase in the growth rate of funds received compared to September 2024 [37] - Policy support, including increased credit quotas for project financing, is expected to further improve funding conditions [37] Policy Relaxation and Housing Prices - Housing prices continue to decline year-on-year, but the pace of decline is expected to stabilize due to ongoing policy relaxation [38] - The central government's policy stance of "stabilizing the market" is expected to support a gradual recovery in housing prices [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong performance and high safety margins, particularly those operating in first- and second-tier cities [45] - Key companies to watch include Binjiang Group, Chengdu Hi-Tech, China Merchants Shekou, Huafa Group, and Poly Development [45] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like Beike, Greentown China, Yuexiu Property, and China Resources Land are recommended [45]