中药板块2024Q3总结：业绩短期承压、需求小幅回暖，静待行业拐点

Industry Investment Rating - The industry maintains an Overweight rating [1] Core Views - The Chinese traditional medicine industry is experiencing a slight recovery in terminal demand, with expectations of a turning point in 2025 [3][5] - The industry's performance is under short-term pressure, but operational quality is improving steadily [5][12] - OTC (Over-the-Counter) companies show resilience, with slight improvements in Q3 2024 [18] - Cost pressures from rising raw material prices are expected to ease starting in 2025, leading to a recovery in gross margins [20][25] Key Company Performance - Huaren Sanjiu (华润三九): Maintains a Buy rating with EPS projections of 2.61 (2024E), 3.02 (2025E), and 3.47 (2026E) [2] - Dong-E-E-Jiao (东阿阿胶): Rated Buy with EPS expected to grow from 2.33 (2024E) to 3.43 (2026E) [2] - Taiji Group (太极集团): Also rated Buy, with EPS forecasts of 1.32 (2024E), 1.56 (2025E), and 1.81 (2026E) [2] - Tongrentang (同仁堂): Rated Buy, with EPS projections of 1.43 (2024E), 1.67 (2025E), and 1.87 (2026E) [2] - Fangsheng Pharmaceutical (方盛制药): Rated Buy, with EPS expected to rise from 0.65 (2024E) to 0.91 (2026E) [2] Industry Financial Performance - Revenue: Total revenue for 63 traditional medicine companies in Q3 2024 was 260.8 billion yuan, a 3.25% YoY decline [5][12] - Net Profit: Non-GAAP net profit was 27.6 billion yuan, down 8.59% YoY [5][12] - Gross Margin: The industry's gross margin was 42.19%, a 2.51pp YoY decline, primarily due to rising raw material costs [5][12] - Operating Cash Flow: Operating cash flow was 19.43 billion yuan, a 17.59% YoY decline [5][12] Operational Efficiency - Sales Expense Ratio: The median sales expense ratio for the industry was 31.9%, a 1.5pp YoY decline, reflecting improved cost control [25] - Accounts Receivable: Accounts receivable as a percentage of total revenue was 32.8%, showing a slight improvement in Q3 2024 [27] - Inventory Turnover: Inventory turnover improved, with inventory as a percentage of total assets at 13.0% [27] Market Trends - Retail Pharmacy Market: The retail pharmacy market size (including drugs and non-drugs) in China was 384.8 billion yuan for Jan-Sep 2024, a 2.2% YoY decline [33] - Monthly Recovery: The market showed signs of recovery in July-September 2024, with 0.9% YoY growth in September [33] - OTC Segment: OTC companies demonstrated resilience, with median revenue and non-GAAP net profit growth of -0.1% and +4.2% respectively in Q3 2024 [18] Future Outlook - 2025 Recovery: The industry is expected to return to normalized growth in 2025, with easing cost pressures and improving gross margins [6][20] - Key Investment Themes: Focus on state-owned enterprise reform (e.g., Huaren Sanjiu, Dong-E-E-Jiao) and companies with strong operational trends (e.g., Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Zuoli Pharmaceutical) [6]