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稀土永磁行业周报:上周行业表现大幅下跌,产业链价格因新增需求疲软走弱
湘财证券·2024-11-20 08:52

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][29]. Core Viewpoints - The rare earth permanent magnet industry experienced a decline of 12.08% last week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 8.79 percentage points. The industry's valuation (TTM P/E) fell to 82.53x, which is at 97.9% of its historical percentile [4][8]. - The demand side shows a mixed trend, with the air conditioning sector's production forecast being revised upward for November-December, while demand in the elevator and fuel vehicle sectors is declining. Overall, industrial demand is recovering, but traditional sectors are growing at a slower pace, leading to pressure on supply-demand balance [4][29]. - The recent price adjustments in rare earth materials are attributed to weak terminal orders and slow consumption of raw materials, resulting in downward pressure on prices. The market sentiment has improved due to expectations of price increases in the rare earth industry, which has significantly boosted industry valuations [4][29]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - Last week, light rare earth ore prices remained stable, while medium and heavy rare earth ore prices declined. The average price of praseodymium-neodymium fell by 1.18% to 420,000 yuan per ton [4][8]. - The average price of dysprosium decreased by 2.57% to 1705 yuan per kilogram, and terbium prices also saw a decline [4][29]. Industry Chain Tracking - From November 1-10, retail sales of passenger cars reached 567,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, while wholesale figures were 667,000 units, up 41% year-on-year [3][4]. - The new energy vehicle sector showed strong growth, with wholesale figures for November 1-10 reaching 350,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 78% [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the industry is currently in a phase of overcapacity and intense competition, with mid-term supply-demand balance under pressure. The industry is expected to remain in a bottoming phase, requiring time to build momentum [4][29].