证券研究报告 2025 年 04 月 29 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 康华生物（300841.SZ）业绩点评 狂苗销量阶段性下降，渠道拓展稳步推进 相关研究： 1. 《狂苗领域技术及临床先发 优势明显，诺如疫苗带来业绩新 增长极》 20241203 公司评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月公司表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 11 -7 -18 绝对收益 13 1 -29 核心要点： ❑ 公允价值变动影响 2024Q4 利润端，高基数及费用率上升影响 2025Q1 业绩 根据公司 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024Q4 公司实现营业收入 3.71 亿元，受参股公司确认公允价值变动损失影响（合计-5868.82 万元），归母 净利润为-725 万元，扣非归母净利润 4492.55 万元。2024Q1 公司营收 3.11 亿元，其中包括重组六价诺如病毒疫苗海外授权首付款 1.06 亿元，剔除上 年同期首付款后，2025Q1 营收同比下降 32.75%，扣非归母净利润同比下 降 65.5%。 2024 年受研发项目阶段性投入减少，研发费用率为 9.22%，同比下降 6.82pct；受市 ...

Macro Strategy and North Exchange - The macro policy remains stable with LPR unchanged at 3.10% for 1-year and 3.60% for 5-year [5] - Industrial enterprise profits showed a year-on-year increase of 2.60% in March, marking the first positive growth since the previous year [5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for high-quality development to address international economic and trade struggles, focusing on "Four Stabilities" [7][8] - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds, with a deficit rate set at around 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from 2024 [8] - Monetary policy will include timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, along with new structural monetary policy tools to support innovation and consumption [10][11] A-Share Market Overview - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, most A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.38% [15] - The market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation state due to the recent "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US and the upcoming May Day holiday [15][23] - The report indicates a "slow bull" market trend for A-shares in 2025, with a focus on technology, green energy, consumption, and infrastructure sectors [23] North Exchange Market Overview - As of April 25, 2025, the North Exchange had 265 listed stocks, with an average total market value of 755.47 billion yuan, an increase of 1.53% from the previous week [24] - The liquidity in the North Exchange decreased, with average trading volume dropping by 9.79% to 1.384 billion shares [25] - The North Exchange's 50 Index closed at 1300.19 points, down 2.16% from the previous week [26] Industry Insights: Food and Beverage - Salted Fish reported a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan and a net profit of 640 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.89% and 26.53% respectively [34] - The company is focusing on core product categories with strong growth, particularly in spicy snacks and baked goods, with significant revenue increases [35] - Salted Fish is accelerating its overseas expansion, with a projected revenue of 6.678 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 25.9% year-on-year [38] Industry Insights: Medical Devices - The sales of ultrasound imaging devices showed a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with sales revenue increasing by 87.95% year-on-year [40] - The report highlights a shift towards domestic brands, with domestic sales accounting for 37.79% of the market share in 2024, up from 34.20% in 2023 [42] - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic ultrasound device manufacturers like Mindray and KAILI Medical, as the market for these devices is expected to continue recovering [48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 1.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 525 million yuan, up 135.14% year-on-year [2][3] - The interconnect chip business is showing robust growth momentum, with sales revenue of 1.139 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.19% [3] - The gross margin for the interconnect chip product line is 64.50%, which is an increase of 3.57 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an overall gross profit growth of 73.66% for the company [3] - The company expects a conservative estimate of a 13.3% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth for interconnect chips in Q2 2025, with total orders exceeding 1.29 billion yuan [3] - The DDR5 memory interface chip market is expected to see a steady increase in average selling price (ASP) due to rising penetration rates and ongoing product iterations [4] - The high-performance "capacity chips" are anticipated to enter a high growth phase, with combined revenue of 135 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 155% [5][6] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.087 billion yuan, 2.933 billion yuan, and 3.666 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 47.9%, 40.5%, and 25% [7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.82 yuan, 2.56 yuan, and 3.20 yuan respectively [7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 39.8x, 28.33x, and 22.67x respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for the company Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of CMEC has significantly boosted revenue, but rising expense ratios are putting short-term pressure on performance [1] - The company's revenue and gross profit are heavily reliant on the US market, with 47% of revenue and 48% of gross profit expected from the US in 2024 [3] - The company's performance in 2024 is projected to be below expectations due to higher-than-expected expense ratios and a decline in gross margins following the CMEC acquisition [8][12] Summary by Sections Recent Stock Price Decline - The stock price has dropped significantly due to escalating US-China tariff disputes, which could severely impact the company's performance if trade decoupling occurs [3] - The company's 2024 performance is expected to be lower than anticipated, with a significant increase in expense ratios and a decline in gross margins post-CMEC acquisition [8][12] Future US-China Tariff Implications - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 50% additional tariff would be the breakeven point for the company's North American business [14] - The report outlines various scenarios regarding tariffs and their potential impact on revenue and gross margins in the North American market [14][20][23] Current Stock Price Reflection - The report discusses three scenarios: pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic, each with different revenue and profit projections for 2024 to 2027 [17][21][25] - The pessimistic scenario predicts a revenue of 71.7 billion and a net profit of 1.63 billion for 2024, while the optimistic scenario forecasts a revenue of 71.7 billion and a net profit of 1.63 billion for the same year [17][25] Long-term Growth Potential - The domestic and emerging markets still present long-term growth opportunities, with significant potential for market share expansion in Europe and North America [28] - The company has a stable management team, ensuring strategic continuity and effective governance [34] Business Operations and Financial Analysis - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.0% in revenue and 40.1% in net profit from 2011 to 2023 [36] - High-altitude work platforms are the primary revenue source, with a significant increase in the revenue share of arm-type products [39] - The company has experienced a rebound in gross and net profit margins since 2022, despite rising expense ratios [42]

Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry index experienced a slight decline, with the Shenwan Semiconductor Index down by 0.63% from April 14 to April 18, 2025, ranking 92 out of 125 among all secondary industries [2] - The analog chip design sector saw a notable increase of 3.08%, driven by domestic substitution concepts, while other sectors such as digital chip design, semiconductor materials, discrete components, semiconductor equipment, and integrated circuit packaging and testing all experienced declines [3] - Several companies reported positive Q1 earnings, benefiting from steady demand recovery, AI demand, and the advancement of domestic substitution processes [5] - TSMC reported Q1 2025 revenue of $25.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%, primarily driven by AI demand, offsetting seasonal declines in smartphone sales [4] - Companies like Cambricon, Amlogic, and Rockchip reported significant year-on-year revenue growths of 4,230.22%, 10.98%, and 196% to 233%, respectively, indicating a strong performance in the semiconductor sector [5] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 23.68% year-to-date as of April 17, 2025, reflecting ongoing valuation adjustments in the tech sector [6] - The rise of domestic AI models is expected to drive demand for various semiconductor hardware, including high-performance Ethernet switches and edge computing chips, while traditional consumer electronics are entering a recovery phase [6] Power Industry - In the first quarter of 2025, the total newly installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 74.33 million kilowatts, accounting for 86.7% of the total new installed capacity [7] - The total installed capacity of power plants in China reached 343,081 megawatts by the end of March 2025, with wind and solar power accounting for a combined 43.2% of the total installed capacity [8] - The investment growth rate for power grid construction was 24.8% in the first quarter of 2025, while power source investment saw a decline of 2.5% [9][10] - The government is accelerating the construction of a unified national electricity market, which is expected to enhance the value reassessment of power assets [11] - Recommendations include focusing on coal-fired power leaders with a national presence and stable dividends from water and nuclear power leaders, as well as green energy companies benefiting from improved consumption and environmental value realization [11]

Group 1 - The report anticipates a strengthening of policies in May 2025, with a focus on dividends and consumption [3][5] - Since the beginning of 2025, major A-share indices have shown a slight downward trend, with the STAR Market performing relatively better due to a strong technology sector in February [4][11] - The report highlights that the cumulative performance of various sectors shows that non-ferrous metals and agriculture have increased by 9.48% and 4.49% respectively, while coal and electric equipment have decreased by -12.08% and -9.43% [20][24] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the U.S. implementing "reciprocal tariffs," leading to expectations of new policies from the April Politburo meeting, with May 2025 expected to be more proactive than previous years [5][34] - The report categorizes secondary industries based on net profit growth and PE percentiles, identifying three categories: strong growth (150%+), moderate growth (30%-120%), and average growth (0%-50%) [6][34] - Investment suggestions indicate that the A-share market is likely to operate in a "slow bull" manner, with key focus areas including technology, green economy, consumption, and infrastructure [7][40] Group 3 - The report suggests that sectors related to dividends, such as banking, insurance, and port transportation, should be monitored in May, along with sectors expected to benefit from domestic consumption policies like dairy and seasoning products [8][40] - Historical analysis of May performance from 2017 to 2024 indicates a tendency for declines in major indices, with only a few instances of positive performance [25][26] - The report emphasizes that the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports will gradually become evident in May and June, affecting market sentiment [39][40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The lithium battery materials industry saw a rebound of 0.94% last week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.35 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) increased by 1.71x to 31.67x, currently at a long-term historical percentile of 20.9% [4][8] - The supply and demand dynamics are improving across various segments, but overall capacity remains sufficient, leading to low operational rates in the industry. Short-term U.S. tariff policies may disrupt export demand expectations, but domestic market demand is expected to benefit from policy continuity and downstream procurement support [13][48] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of -10%, a 3-month return of -4%, and a 12-month return of -11%. Absolute returns were -16%, -5%, and -5% respectively [3] Positive Material Trends - Last week, the price of ternary precursors and materials decreased, while the demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) increased, leading to a rise in operational rates. The prices of ternary precursor materials NCM111, NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 fell by 1.23%, 1.25%, 1.22%, and 1.66% respectively, with current prices at 80,500 CNY/ton, 79,000 CNY/ton, 81,000 CNY/ton, and 89,000 CNY/ton [5][6] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.36% to 70,000 CNY/ton, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide remained stable at 71,800 CNY/ton [5] Electrolyte and Separator Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continued to decline, with a 2.54% drop to 57,500 CNY/ton. The solvent prices increased, but electrolyte prices remained stable [9][12] - The separator production increased by 1.76% to 52 million square meters, with an operational rate of 79.65%. However, the market continues to experience an oversupply situation [11] Investment Recommendations - The current industry valuation is at a historical low, providing some potential for elasticity. However, the marginal profitability improvement is constrained by supply-demand imbalances, and the industry needs to achieve a rebalancing for a significant turnaround [13][48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][44] Core Viewpoints - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 5.01% last week, underperforming the benchmark by 5.6 percentage points [5][11] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased by 3.73x to 69.23x, currently at 85.9% of its historical percentile [5][11] - Demand remains weak, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium continuing to decline [6][17] - The overall market sentiment is weak, influenced by policy impacts and limited downstream orders [21][38] - Despite high growth in the new energy vehicle sector, the industry faces challenges from U.S. tariff policies affecting export demand [8][43] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry fell by 5.01% last week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 5.6 percentage points [5][11] - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 12% [4] Price Trends - Core prices across the rare earth supply chain have generally declined, with significant drops in light rare earth prices [6][11] - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate and imported monazite prices fell by 8% and 2.66% respectively [6][11] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 2.69% to 416,500 CNY/ton [17] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New energy vehicle production and sales in March 2025 saw year-on-year increases of 43%, 38%, and 35.5% for production, retail, and wholesale respectively [7][42] - The demand for air conditioning and industrial sectors remains stable, but export demand is expected to decline due to U.S. tariffs [8][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating due to the anticipated stable growth in demand despite current challenges [8][44] - The industry is still in a recovery phase, with absolute and relative historical valuation levels remaining high, indicating potential overvaluation risks [8][44]

Macro Strategy - In March, exports in USD terms increased by 12.4% year-on-year, a significant rise of 15.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, attributed mainly to the tariff imposition leading to a rush in exports [2][3] - Exports to the US grew by 9.09%, while exports to the EU increased by 10.3%, with exports to Africa and Latin America showing remarkable growth rates of 37.04% and 23.46% respectively [2] - The unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies has increased global trade uncertainty, but recent exemptions on electronic products are seen as a move to protect US manufacturing interests [2][3] Banking Industry - Social financing and credit growth remained stable in March, with social financing growth rate rising by 0.2 percentage points to 8.4% and financial institution loan growth increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 7.4% [4][5] - New RMB loans added by financial institutions in March reached 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises [4][5] - The M1 money supply grew by 1.6% year-on-year, while M2 remained stable at a 7% growth rate, indicating a recovery in corporate short-term loan demand and a slight improvement in retail credit [5][6] - Investment suggestions include focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and quality regional banks, with a maintained "overweight" rating for the banking sector [7] Medical Device Industry - The company reported a revenue of 2.014 billion yuan for 2024, a decline of 5.02% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 68.67% to 142 million yuan, primarily due to reduced hospital procurement and increased competition [9][10] - The company’s expense ratios increased, with sales expense ratio at 28.45% and management expense ratio at 30.29%, reflecting continued high investment despite revenue pressures [10] - The ultrasound and endoscope business faced sales pressure, but new high-end products are expected to drive growth in 2025 as hospital procurement recovers [11][12] - The company’s domestic revenue was 1.044 billion yuan, while overseas revenue reached 970 million yuan, with overseas sales accounting for 48.17% of total revenue [12] - Investment recommendations suggest a potential recovery in performance as hospital procurement improves, with revised revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 set at 2.392 billion and 2.796 billion yuan respectively, maintaining an "overweight" rating [13]

Export Performance - In March, exports measured in USD increased by 12.4% year-on-year, a significant rise of 15.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] - The growth in exports is attributed to a combination of base effects, resilient external demand, and a notable "rush to export" effect due to impending tariffs[5] - Exports to the US grew by 9.09%, which is lower than the overall export growth, indicating a decreasing contribution of US trade to China's exports[6] Regional Export Trends - Exports to Africa surged by 37.04% and to Latin America by 23.46%, both significantly outpacing overall export growth[6] - Exports to the EU increased by 10.3%, reflecting a diversified export market amidst fluctuating US trade policies[6] Tariff Implications - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs has prompted many companies to stockpile goods before the official announcement of new tariffs in April[5] - The temporary exemption of tariffs on electronic products by the US is seen as a strategy to protect domestic manufacturing, potentially extending until the end of the year or into next year[6] Investment Recommendations - The strong export performance in March is primarily driven by the rush to export; however, the impact of new tariffs post-April needs close monitoring[7] - Expanding domestic demand to counterbalance external uncertainties is emphasized as a key focus for economic development this year[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include greater-than-expected impacts from tariffs on exports, faster-than-anticipated decoupling of China-US trade, and slower recovery of domestic demand[8]