2025年5月A股策略：预期5月政策面转强，关注红利和消费

Group 1 - The report anticipates a strengthening of policies in May 2025, with a focus on dividends and consumption [3][5] - Since the beginning of 2025, major A-share indices have shown a slight downward trend, with the STAR Market performing relatively better due to a strong technology sector in February [4][11] - The report highlights that the cumulative performance of various sectors shows that non-ferrous metals and agriculture have increased by 9.48% and 4.49% respectively, while coal and electric equipment have decreased by -12.08% and -9.43% [20][24] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the U.S. implementing "reciprocal tariffs," leading to expectations of new policies from the April Politburo meeting, with May 2025 expected to be more proactive than previous years [5][34] - The report categorizes secondary industries based on net profit growth and PE percentiles, identifying three categories: strong growth (150%+), moderate growth (30%-120%), and average growth (0%-50%) [6][34] - Investment suggestions indicate that the A-share market is likely to operate in a "slow bull" manner, with key focus areas including technology, green economy, consumption, and infrastructure [7][40] Group 3 - The report suggests that sectors related to dividends, such as banking, insurance, and port transportation, should be monitored in May, along with sectors expected to benefit from domestic consumption policies like dairy and seasoning products [8][40] - Historical analysis of May performance from 2017 to 2024 indicates a tendency for declines in major indices, with only a few instances of positive performance [25][26] - The report emphasizes that the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports will gradually become evident in May and June, affecting market sentiment [39][40]