ZHEJIANG DINGLI(603338) 湘财证券·2025-04-25 12:24Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for the company Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of CMEC has significantly boosted revenue, but rising expense ratios are putting short-term pressure on performance [1] - The company's revenue and gross profit are heavily reliant on the US market, with 47% of revenue and 48% of gross profit expected from the US in 2024 [3] - The company's performance in 2024 is projected to be below expectations due to higher-than-expected expense ratios and a decline in gross margins following the CMEC acquisition [8][12] Summary by Sections Recent Stock Price Decline - The stock price has dropped significantly due to escalating US-China tariff disputes, which could severely impact the company's performance if trade decoupling occurs [3] - The company's 2024 performance is expected to be lower than anticipated, with a significant increase in expense ratios and a decline in gross margins post-CMEC acquisition [8][12] Future US-China Tariff Implications - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 50% additional tariff would be the breakeven point for the company's North American business [14] - The report outlines various scenarios regarding tariffs and their potential impact on revenue and gross margins in the North American market [14][20][23] Current Stock Price Reflection - The report discusses three scenarios: pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic, each with different revenue and profit projections for 2024 to 2027 [17][21][25] - The pessimistic scenario predicts a revenue of 71.7 billion and a net profit of 1.63 billion for 2024, while the optimistic scenario forecasts a revenue of 71.7 billion and a net profit of 1.63 billion for the same year [17][25] Long-term Growth Potential - The domestic and emerging markets still present long-term growth opportunities, with significant potential for market share expansion in Europe and North America [28] - The company has a stable management team, ensuring strategic continuity and effective governance [34] Business Operations and Financial Analysis - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.0% in revenue and 40.1% in net profit from 2011 to 2023 [36] - High-altitude work platforms are the primary revenue source, with a significant increase in the revenue share of arm-type products [39] - The company has experienced a rebound in gross and net profit margins since 2022, despite rising expense ratios [42]