Macro Strategy - In Q1, China's export scale exceeded 6 trillion yuan, achieving a rapid growth of 6.9%, demonstrating strong resilience under pressure [2] - Private enterprises accounted for 5.85 trillion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 5.8%, and their share increased to 56.8% [2] - High-tech product exports from private enterprises reached a historical high of nearly 1 trillion yuan, maintaining their position as the largest import and export entity [2] - The customs authority noted four positive changes in foreign trade: increased activity among business entities, expanded cooperation space, optimized regional opening layout, and enhanced "new content" in foreign trade, with self-owned brand product exports growing by 10.2% [2] Industry Company - Steel Industry - The steel sector declined by 6.29% last week, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 3.42 percentage points [9] - The steel industry's PE valuation stands at 15.6 times, at the 62.35% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 0.95 times, at the 25.49% percentile [9] - Steel production showed a slight decrease, with iron water production and blast furnace operating rates remaining high; as of April 11, the operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points week-on-week [10] - Demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.14% week-on-week, influenced by tariff policies and limited downstream industry operations [10] - Total steel inventory decreased by 1.71% week-on-week, although the decline rate has narrowed; inventory pressure is mainly on factory stocks, which increased by 2% [10] - Short-term outlook suggests that tariff issues may further suppress domestic steel demand, leading to weak steel prices; however, long-term prospects for high-end and green transformation in the industry are promising [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6][10]. Core Views - The company's performance has improved, with notable resilience in net interest margin and stable asset quality [5][6]. - In 2024, the company's operating income grew by 3.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.3%, showing a continuous recovery trend [6]. - The net interest income growth rate improved to 2.2%, while the decline in fee income narrowed to 4%, with investment income's share of revenue slightly increasing to 13.7% [6]. - The company benefits from significant savings in interest costs and growth in investment income, contributing to the overall performance recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company has shown a relative return of 7.29% over the past month, 6.77% over three months, and 18.45% over twelve months [4]. - Absolute returns were -0.14% for one month, 2.95% for three months, and 20.78% for twelve months [4]. Asset Expansion - The company's total assets grew at a rate of 5.3% in 2024, with loan growth increasing by 1 percentage point to 4% and deposit growth rising by 1.2% to 7.0% [7]. - The proportion of loans to the manufacturing and information services sectors has increased, enhancing support for the real economy [7]. Asset Quality - The company's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreasing by 0.01 percentage points to 1.16% [9]. - The coverage ratio for provisions stands at 209.43%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [9]. Financial Projections - For 2024, the company forecasts operating income of 213,646 million yuan and a net profit of 68,576 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 3.8% and 2.3% [13]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.28, 1.32, and 1.38 yuan, respectively [10][13].

证券研究报告 2025 年 04 月 09 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 房地产行业数据点评 受清明假期影响，新房、二手房成交环比下降 相关研究： 1. 《周度数据跟踪：新房成交小 幅回落，二手房成交持续增长》 2025.3.11 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -2 -4 -5 绝对收益 -10 -7 -3 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2024/4/8 2024/6/7 2024/8/6 2024/10/5 2024/12/4 2025/2/2 2025/4/3 沪深300 房地产(申万) 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 受清明假期影响，新房、二手房成交面积环比下降 根据 Wind 数据，上周（3.31-4.6）30 大中城市新房成交面积为 159 万平（环 比-42%、同比-52%），环比在近三周首次转负 ...

相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ上涨 1.53%，医药板块延续反弹态势 1. 《两会<政府工作报告>提出 医药发展新目标》 20250305 2. 《关注中药板块估值修复》 20250312 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 证券研究报告 2025 年 04 月 09 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 关税影响下，关注以内需为主的中药板块 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 沪深300_累计 中药_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 5 | -1 | -16 | | 绝对收益 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：(8621) 50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 上周（2025.03.31-2025.04.06）医药生物报收 7567.13 点，上涨 1.2% ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. is expected to have a limited direct impact on China's chemical exports, as the proportion of chemical products exported to the U.S. has already decreased significantly since 2018, now accounting for approximately 10.6% of total chemical exports [6][9] - The tariffs may indirectly affect the demand for chemical products through downstream manufacturing processes, but certain chemical products have been exempted from the tariffs, including fluorite, sucralose, vitamins, potassium fertilizers, and polytetrafluoroethylene, which are expected to have low self-sufficiency rates in the U.S. [6][7] - China's countermeasures against U.S. tariffs may impact the profitability and operating rates of downstream chemical products that rely heavily on imported ethane and propane [6][9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return of the industry has been -1.6% over 1 month, 2.0% over 3 months, and -9.2% over 12 months, while the absolute return has been -10.6% over 1 month, -3.5% over 3 months, and -8.6% over 12 months [3] Market Dynamics - The domestic chemical industry is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution of high-end products due to the trade tensions, with a focus on products like POE [7] - There is an expectation of more proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand in response to the tariff impacts, particularly benefiting sectors like refrigerants and civil explosives [7][9]

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 062 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 4 月 8 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 朱毅 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 王逸奇 孙菲 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：郭怡萍 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、宏观策略 1.1 宏观新闻（贺钰偲） 1、4 月 7 日，央行发布数据显示，中国 3 月末外汇储备 32406.65 亿美元，环比增加 134.41 亿美元；黄金储备 7370 万盎司，环比增加 9 万盎司，连续 5 个月增加。 2、4 月 7 日，中央汇金公司公告称，中央汇金公司坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景， 充分认可当前 A 股配置价值，已再次增持了交易型开放式指数基金（ETF），未来将继续增 持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 1.2 债市点评（贺钰偲） 美国关税政策扰动下，债市收益率全面下行 信用债一级市场：发行量、偿还量均有所回落 上周（2025.03.31-2025.04.06）企业债 ...

Macro Strategy and North Exchange - In March, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, indicating a continued recovery in economic activity [4] - The production index and new orders index were 52.6% and 51.8%, respectively, showing acceleration in expansion [4] - Small and medium-sized enterprises showed improvement, with PMI for small enterprises rising to 49.9% and for medium enterprises to 49.6% [4] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw PMIs of 52.0% and 52.3%, respectively, indicating stable growth [5] - The market expectation index for production and operation activities was 53.8%, reflecting optimism among manufacturing enterprises [6] - The U.S. announced a 34% tariff on Chinese imports, escalating trade tensions [6] Stock Market Overview - From March 31 to April 6, 2025, major A-share indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.28% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.28% [7] - The overall trading volume decreased, influenced by the downturn in overseas equity markets and the implementation of tariffs [7][8] - The A-share market is expected to operate in a "slow bull" manner in 2025, driven by government policies aimed at economic growth [16] Industry and Company Analysis Electronics Industry - The company reported a revenue growth of 22.99% for 2024, reaching 4.772 billion yuan [17] - The net profit for 2024 was 1.039 billion yuan, a 1.48% increase year-on-year [17] - The company plans to expand into the global renewable energy market, targeting sectors like electric vehicles and smart grids for stable revenue growth in 2025 [19] - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.37%, down 5.21 percentage points due to increased competition [18] - The company has shown excellent cost control, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios over the past five years [18] ETF Market Overview - As of March 31, 2025, there were 1,123 ETFs in the market, with a total asset management scale of 3.80 trillion yuan [22] - The stock-type ETFs accounted for 893 of these, with a total value of 2.821 trillion yuan [22] - The commodity-type ETFs showed the highest median return of 8.68% in March, while stock-type ETFs had a median return of -0.42% [24] - The PB-ROE framework identified high PB and high ROE industries as key focus areas for investment strategies [25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][23] Core Insights - In March, new home sales showed significant differentiation, while second-hand home sales continued to grow strongly. The total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of positive growth. Specifically, first-tier cities saw a year-on-year increase of 18%, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 2.2% and 4.9%, respectively [4][5][9] - The absolute value of new home sales in March was only higher than the same period in 2024, indicating a weak recovery in new home demand, with significant differentiation among cities. First-tier cities had sales significantly higher than in 2020, 2022, and 2024, while second and third-tier cities remained weak, with March sales at the lowest level since 2020. In contrast, second-hand home sales in 13 monitored cities increased by 33% year-on-year in the first three months, with a 37% increase in March alone [5][9] - The inventory level of new homes continues to decline, but the sales slowdown has led to a slight increase in the de-stocking cycle. As of the end of March, the available area of commercial housing in the top ten cities was 77.67 million square meters, down 9.1% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with a de-stocking cycle of 23.4 months, an increase of about 4 months from the previous month [17][20] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was 810.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, while the sales area was 447.5 million square meters, down 8%. In March alone, the sales amount and area were 353.9 billion yuan and 209.7 million square meters, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.5% and 2.7% [6][20] - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 30, 50, and 100 companies in the first three months were 23.1 billion yuan (up 4.4% year-on-year), 6 billion yuan (down 20.6%), 3.7 billion yuan (down 15.4%), and 1.5 billion yuan (down 7%) [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while second-hand home transactions remain robust, the recovery in new home demand is uneven, with first-tier cities showing resilience and second and third-tier cities lagging. It is anticipated that restrictive policies will continue to ease, and progress in the acquisition of existing homes and land will accelerate, improving the market supply-demand structure. The industry maintains a "Buy" rating, with recommendations to focus on leading real estate companies with land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserves, such as Poly Developments, and leading intermediary agencies benefiting from active second-hand home transactions, such as I Love My Home [7][23]

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机器人行业深度 传感器：人形机器人与外界互动核心零部件 相关研究： 1.《20240418湘财证券-机械行业 -《以旧换新方案》最新解读，工 业机器人有望受益》2024.04.18 2.《20250225湘财证券-机械行业 -Grok3大模型发布，助力人形机 器人产业化落地》2025.02.25 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -12.2 18.8 42.9 绝对收益 -13.6 16.7 53.5 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 机器人(申万) 沪深300 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621)50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 联系人：汪炜 Tel：(8621)50299604 Email：ww07001@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 锂电材料行业深度 固态电池产业化加速，相关材料有望受益 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -6 | 2 | -1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | -7 | 1 | 11 | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 | | | 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 固态电池兼具高能量密度和高安全性优势 ❑ 全球出台政策促进固态电池产业化进程，各国固态电池技术路径不同， 全球产业链企业积极推动固态电池量产，半固态电池有望率先实现商业 化，未来五年将是全固态电池量产的关键节点 固态电池已成为各个国家重点突破的方向，近年来全球主要国家都出台 相关政策支撑固态电池开发，以加速固态电池技术产业化步伐。目前固态 电池的研发主要集中在中日韩美欧五国，各国发展固态电池产业的 ...