3月新房成交分化明显，二手房保持高增

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][23] Core Insights - In March, new home sales showed significant differentiation, while second-hand home sales continued to grow strongly. The total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of positive growth. Specifically, first-tier cities saw a year-on-year increase of 18%, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 2.2% and 4.9%, respectively [4][5][9] - The absolute value of new home sales in March was only higher than the same period in 2024, indicating a weak recovery in new home demand, with significant differentiation among cities. First-tier cities had sales significantly higher than in 2020, 2022, and 2024, while second and third-tier cities remained weak, with March sales at the lowest level since 2020. In contrast, second-hand home sales in 13 monitored cities increased by 33% year-on-year in the first three months, with a 37% increase in March alone [5][9] - The inventory level of new homes continues to decline, but the sales slowdown has led to a slight increase in the de-stocking cycle. As of the end of March, the available area of commercial housing in the top ten cities was 77.67 million square meters, down 9.1% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with a de-stocking cycle of 23.4 months, an increase of about 4 months from the previous month [17][20] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies was 810.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, while the sales area was 447.5 million square meters, down 8%. In March alone, the sales amount and area were 353.9 billion yuan and 209.7 million square meters, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.5% and 2.7% [6][20] - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 30, 50, and 100 companies in the first three months were 23.1 billion yuan (up 4.4% year-on-year), 6 billion yuan (down 20.6%), 3.7 billion yuan (down 15.4%), and 1.5 billion yuan (down 7%) [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while second-hand home transactions remain robust, the recovery in new home demand is uneven, with first-tier cities showing resilience and second and third-tier cities lagging. It is anticipated that restrictive policies will continue to ease, and progress in the acquisition of existing homes and land will accelerate, improving the market supply-demand structure. The industry maintains a "Buy" rating, with recommendations to focus on leading real estate companies with land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserves, such as Poly Developments, and leading intermediary agencies benefiting from active second-hand home transactions, such as I Love My Home [7][23]