证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 20 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 医疗服务行业周报 医疗需求有望提振，关注民营医疗服务 --医疗服务行业周报 3.10-3.16 相关研究： 核心要点： 上周医药生物上涨 1.77%，位列申万一级行业第 15 位 上周申万一级行业医药生物上涨 1.77%，涨幅排名位列申万 31 个一级行业 第 15 位。沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%，医药跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.18%。申万 医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 5637.41 点，上涨 1.46%；中药 II 报 收 6381.97 点，上涨 2.63%；化学制药 II 报收 10503.32 点，上涨 1.39%； 生物制品Ⅱ报收 6028.67 点，上涨 1.63%；医药商业Ⅱ报收 5194.99 点， 上涨 6.44%；医疗器械 II 报收 6430.00 点，上涨 1.09%。细分板块来看， 医药商业涨幅居前。 从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有：澳洋健康（+18.1%）、 创新医疗（+10.7%）、皓宸医疗（+8.9%）、普瑞眼科（+7.8%）、华厦眼科 （+7.5%）；表现靠后的公司 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 微电生理（688351.SH）业绩点评 2024 年实现扣非归母净利润转正，下半年营收增速放缓 相关研究： | 1.《2024H1业务发展迅速，新产品 | | --- | | 助力业绩增长》 2024.09.27 | 公司评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月公司表现 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 6.8 | -8.8 | -29.5 | | 绝对收益 | 8.3 | -10 | -19.7 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：聂孟依 证书编号：S0500524040001 Tel：(8621) 50299667 Email：nmy06967@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 核心要点： ❑ 2024 年营收同比增长 25.51%，扣非归母净利润转正 ❑ 多路线并进，PFA 项目积极推进中 公司在完成"射频+冷冻"协同布局的同时，积极推进 PFA 项目研发进度， 全面覆盖"冰、火、电"三大能 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with significant price-volume effects observed [1] - The core product series, Wuling, has maintained robust growth, with stable procurement prices and a vast market in grassroots medical terminals [3] - The company is leveraging its unique products and favorable policies to expand its market presence, particularly in traditional Chinese medicine [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 505 million yuan, up 31.79% [2] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of 178-189 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.99%-32.71% [2] Product Analysis - The Wuling series, including Wuling capsules, has shown a revenue growth of 17.14% in 2024, with Wuling capsules' sales volume and revenue increasing by 22.62% and 15.96%, respectively [3] - The Bailing series has been selected for national procurement, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and facilitate volume growth despite a short-term price decline [5] Market Strategy - The company has effectively implemented a "one body, two wings" strategy, resulting in significant revenue growth in traditional Chinese medicine products, with a 45.82% increase in Chinese medicine pieces and a 145.34% increase in formula granules in 2024 [7] - The marketing strategy has been upgraded, and the company is exploring new sales channels, including internet and e-commerce [8] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 2.60 billion yuan, 3.21 billion yuan, and 3.81 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 534 million yuan, 713 million yuan, and 912 million yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][12]. Core Insights - Government bonds are driving improvements in social financing, while loan demand remains weak [5][15]. - In February, social financing growth increased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%, primarily due to large-scale government bond financing [6][15]. - Financial institution loan growth decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3%, with a notable decline in medium- and long-term loan demand [6][15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in social financing, with an addition of 2.24 trillion yuan, which is 741.6 billion yuan more year-on-year [6][15]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Demand - In February, social financing increased by 2.24 trillion yuan, with government bond financing contributing an additional 1.09 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][15]. - Financial institution loans added 1.01 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 440 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak loan demand [7][17]. - Corporate loans contributed 1.04 trillion yuan, but this was a decrease of 530 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in financing demand [7][17]. Deposit Growth - In February, M1 grew by 0.1% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 7%, indicating a stable deposit environment [10][23]. - Total new deposits reached 4.42 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.46 trillion yuan year-on-year, largely driven by accelerated government bond issuance [10][25]. - Resident deposits increased by 610 billion yuan, but this was a decrease of 2.59 trillion yuan year-on-year, highlighting a shift in deposit flows due to the Spring Festival [10][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the weak credit demand and the need for structural optimization in credit should be monitored closely [11][27]. - It emphasizes two main investment lines: focusing on banks with strong operational performance and high dividend yields, and considering state-owned large banks for their significant dividend value [11][27]. - The overall outlook remains positive, with expectations for improved corporate financing demand as government bond issuance accelerates [11][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - New and second-hand housing prices have shown a consistent decline, with the number of cities experiencing price increases decreasing [3][4] - In February, new housing prices in 70 major cities fell by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand housing prices dropped by 7.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [3][4] - The duration of price declines for new homes has lasted for 35 months year-on-year and 21 months month-on-month, while second-hand homes have seen declines for 37 months year-on-year and 22 months month-on-month [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In February, new housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 3% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a narrowing decline [5] - Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities decreased by 4.9% year-on-year and fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first month-on-month decline since October [5] - Second-tier cities saw new housing prices drop by 4.7% year-on-year, while second-hand prices fell by 7.4% year-on-year [6] Second-Hand Housing Market - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in February was 14,071 yuan per square meter, with year-on-year and month-on-month declines of 7.3% and 0.4% respectively [3] - The number of cities with declining second-hand housing prices increased to 65, while only 3 cities saw price increases [4] Investment Recommendations - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for continued relaxation of restrictive measures in core cities [8] - Focus is recommended on leading developers with strong financing and land acquisition capabilities, as well as top second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active transactions [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved an operating income of 184.145 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. However, the total profit decreased by 2.57% to 43.844 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 3.97% to 22.196 billion yuan [1] - The company successfully acquired Shaanxi Coal Power Group, establishing a "coal-electricity integration" operational model, which is expected to enhance revenue stability and reduce related transactions [2] - The company has a stable dividend policy, planning to distribute no less than 60% of the distributable profits in cash each year. The estimated dividend yield for 2024 is 6.83% based on a basic earnings per share of 2.29 yuan and a closing price of 20.11 yuan on March 17 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a coal production of 170 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.13%, and coal sales of 260 million tons, up 9.91% [1] - The average price of Shaanxi Huangling thermal coal Q5000 and Hancheng thermal coal Q5000 fell by 10.31% and 11.00% respectively [1] - The company expects to offset the negative impact of falling coal prices through increased production and sales [1] Future Outlook - The company is projected to have net profits of 22.196 billion yuan, 22.232 billion yuan, and 22.674 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.29 yuan for 2024 and 2.34 yuan for 2026 [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is estimated at 8.82x for 2024, 8.81x for 2025, and 8.64x for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [1][8][23] Core Views - The machinery industry is expected to benefit from a series of incremental policies implemented since September 2024, with the PMI in February showing signs of recovery, indicating a stabilization in domestic manufacturing supply and demand [7][23] - The domestic demand for construction machinery is showing a clear recovery trend, driven by accelerated updates of existing equipment and increasing demand in emerging sectors such as water conservancy and high-standard farmland [5][6][23] - The overall performance of the machinery industry is projected to continue growing, supported by special government bonds, large-scale equipment updates, and companies expanding overseas [8][23] Summary by Sections Market Review - The machinery equipment sector experienced a decline of 0.7% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.3 percentage points [3][11] - The best-performing sub-sectors included abrasives (3.0%), energy and heavy equipment (2.7%), and printing and packaging machinery (1.7%), while engineering machinery components (-6.1%), semiconductor equipment (-4.3%), and industrial control equipment (-2.9%) lagged behind [3][11] Engineering Machinery - In February, domestic demand for engineering machinery showed a sustained recovery, with 9 out of 12 tracked machinery types experiencing year-on-year sales growth [4][5] - The sales of excavators and loaders have been increasing since last year, with growth rates gradually improving [5][22] - The CMI index for February was 106.68 points, indicating a stable development phase with significant increases in new orders and production indices [6][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sub-sectors such as engineering machinery, industrial robots, semiconductor equipment, and industrial control equipment, as they are expected to benefit from the overall industry growth [8][23] Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Ratings - The report includes earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms within the machinery sector [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with significant price-volume effects [1] - The core product series, Wuling, has maintained robust growth, with stable procurement prices and a vast market in grassroots medical terminals [3][4] - The Bailing series has been selected in the national traditional Chinese medicine procurement, which is expected to achieve volume growth through price adjustments [5] - The company's "one body, two wings" strategy has shown clear effects, forming new growth drivers in the performance [7] - The company benefits from favorable policies supporting traditional Chinese medicine, which enhances the growth potential of its core products and newly developed herbal medicine segments [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 505 million yuan, up 31.79% [2] - The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2.60 billion, 3.21 billion, and 3.81 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 534 million, 713 million, and 912 million yuan [9][12] Product Performance - The Wuling series, including Wuling capsules, has seen a revenue increase of 17.14% in 2024, with significant sales growth in both volume and revenue for its products [3][4] - The Bailing series, including Bailing tablets and capsules, is expected to recover sales due to successful procurement selections, despite a short-term revenue decline due to price reductions [5] Market Strategy - The company is actively developing Wuling capsules for treating mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in elderly patients, enhancing its market positioning [4] - The marketing strategy has been upgraded, showing positive effects on sales and market reach [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][11]. Core Viewpoints - The global potash industry is expected to see a favorable supply-demand balance due to production cuts from Belarus and Russia, alongside limited new capacity additions [6][11]. - The demand for potash is projected to grow steadily, driven by an increase in global agricultural planting areas and modernization in emerging markets [8][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Potash is one of the three essential nutrients for crop growth, widely used in major crops to enhance yield and quality. Chloride potassium accounts for over 90% of potash products due to its rich resources and high nutrient concentration [5][14]. - The global distribution of potash resources is highly uneven, with Canada, Russia, and Belarus holding significant reserves and production shares of 31.0%, 18.6%, and 14.5% respectively [5][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, Belarus and Russia are expected to jointly reduce potash production, with Belarus's Belaruskali planning a significant maintenance operation that could reduce output by 900,000 to 1,000,000 tons [7][18]. - The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts that global potash consumption will reach 41 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1 million tons from 2024 [8][21]. - The supply side is projected to see a change in potash production ranging from a decrease of 300,000 tons to an increase of 800,000 tons, which is lower than the anticipated demand growth of 1.6 million tons [23][24]. Price Trends - Recent trends indicate an upward movement in potash prices, with domestic prices for various types of potassium chloride increasing by 9.8% to 27.5% compared to the beginning of the year [10][26]. - The domestic reliance on imports for potash is high, reaching approximately 67% in 2024, which causes domestic prices to follow global trends [10][26].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "slow bull" market trend for A-shares in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the market overall [8][38]. Core Insights - The A-share market showed a general upward trend during the week of March 10-16, 2025, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.24% [3][11]. - The report highlights a rebound in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing scale, which reached 8.2% in February 2025, slightly higher than January's 8% [6][31]. - Key sectors expected to perform well include technology, green economy, consumption, and infrastructure, with a focus on strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and quantum technology [8][38]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of March 10-16, 2025, the A-share indices mostly trended upwards, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3419.56 points and a weekly trading volume that remained stable [3][11]. - The strongest performing sectors included beauty care and food & beverage, with weekly gains of 8.18% and 6.19% respectively, while the weakest sectors were computer and machinery equipment, with declines of -1.36% and -0.68% [4][19]. Sector Analysis - Among the 124 secondary industries, the top gainers were coke and accessories, with weekly increases of 11.32% and 8.93% respectively, while software development and automation equipment saw declines of -2.61% and -2.29% [4][20]. - In the 259 tertiary industries, the leading sectors for weekly growth were coke III and offline pharmacies, with increases of 11.32% and 10.38% respectively [5][30]. Macroeconomic Data - The report notes that M1 and M2 growth rates have shown a decline, with M1 dropping from 1.2% in December 2024 to 0.1% in February 2025, while M2 remained steady at 7.0% [6][31]. - The government work report for 2025 emphasizes effective investment expansion, consumption stimulation, and deepening reform and opening-up policies to achieve a growth target of around 5% [8][38].