Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry has seen a significant increase of 8.85% this week, outperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 6.06 percentage points [4][11] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has rebounded to 79.91x, which is at the 90.6% historical percentile [4][11] - The prices of rare earth concentrates continue to rise, with notable increases in praseodymium and neodymium prices, while dysprosium and terbium prices have surged significantly [5][19] - The supply side remains relatively stable, with a tight circulation of oxides, while the demand side shows stability despite some short-term pressures on high-priced procurement [39] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of 5%, a 3-month return of -5%, and a 12-month return of 68% [3] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 9%, -4%, and 94% respectively [3] Price Trends - Domestic mixed rare earth carbonate prices increased by 4.88%, while prices for Sichuan and Shandong fluorocarbon cerium ores rose by 5.56% and 6.45% respectively [8][12] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 2.88%, and the metal price increased by 3.06% [15] - Dysprosium oxide prices surged by 7.46%, and dysprosium metal prices increased by 12.02% [19] - The average price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron N35 increased by 3.46%, while H35 rose by 2.33% [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, citing a recovery in market sentiment and resilient pricing in the supply chain [40][41] - It is recommended to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from valuation premiums and stable profits [41] - Downstream magnetic material companies with good customer structures and potential growth points, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet, are also highlighted for attention [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The market performance of the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector has shown a modest increase of 2.89%, which is the smallest among the pharmaceutical sub-sectors due to a lack of short-term catalysts and market style shifts [4][5] - The TCM sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio (ttm) is 27.39X, reflecting a 0.76X increase from the previous week, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio (lf) stands at 2.3X, up 0.06X [6] - The national health conference held in January 2026 indicates a positive outlook for the penetration rate of TCM services, suggesting a comprehensive development approach for TCM in various healthcare aspects [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The TCM sector's performance is lagging behind other pharmaceutical sub-sectors, with a 12-month relative return of -24% compared to the CSI 300 index [4] - The TCM sector's index closed at 6414.65 points, with a weekly increase of 2.89% [21] Valuation - The TCM sector's PE ratio (ttm) is at 27.39X, with a maximum of 30.26X and a minimum of 24.72X over the past year [6] - The PB ratio (lf) is 2.3X, with a maximum of 2.52X and a minimum of 2.17X in the same period [6] Industry Trends - The TCM material market has seen a slight decline in price index due to reduced market traffic, with a total index of 227.06 points, down 0.6% week-on-week [7] - The national health conference emphasizes the ongoing development of TCM services, which is expected to enhance its integration into the healthcare system [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [9] - Specific investment targets include companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products, as well as those less affected by centralized procurement [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][51] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry saw a 2.12% increase from January 5 to January 9, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.66 percentage points [5][11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a mild recovery in consumer demand [7][8] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a historically low level, with a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 21X, ranking 23rd among Shenwan's primary industries [6][51] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry index increased by 2.12% during the specified week, with most sub-sectors, except for meat products and dairy, showing positive growth [5][11] - The relative performance against the CSI 300 index was -3.1% over one month, -3.6% over three months, and -28.5% over twelve months [4] Valuation Metrics - As of January 5, 2026, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio is 21X, with sub-sectors like other alcoholic beverages (52X), snacks (38X), and health products (36X) having higher valuations, while white liquor (19X), beer (22X), and pre-processed foods (24X) are lower [6][19] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.8% is the highest since March 2023, driven primarily by rising food prices, which increased by 1.1% [8] - Key food items such as fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases, contributing to the overall CPI rise [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: stable demand industry leaders, companies innovating in new products and channels, and segments with reasonable valuations post-adjustment [9][51] - Specific companies recommended for attention include Guizhou Moutai, Miaokelando, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanjing Beer, and Salted Fish [9][51]

Market Overview - In the week from January 5 to January 9, 2026, 30 out of 31 industries in the Shenwan first-level industry index rose, with the comprehensive sector leading at a 14.55% increase, followed by defense and military at 13.63% and media at 13.10%. The only sector that declined was banking, which fell by 1.90% [10][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 3.82%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40% to 14120.15. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 28259.76 billion, totaling 14.13 trillion for the week [10][11] ETF Market Performance - A total of 10 new stock ETFs were listed during the week, including two AI ETFs focused on innovation and entrepreneurship, with a total issuance scale of 4.83 billion [19][21] - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 4.30%, with the satellite ETF from E Fund showing the highest increase at 22.46%. Conversely, the banking ETF experienced the largest decline at 2.00% [22][23] - The median weekly return for bond ETFs was -0.03%, with convertible bond ETFs performing the best, rising by 4.47% [25][26] - The median return for cross-border ETFs was 2.34%, with the Sino-Korean semiconductor ETF leading at a 15.52% increase [27][28] ETF Strategy Tracking - The PB-ROE framework identified communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and transportation as key sectors for the week, with a cumulative strategy return of 1.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47% [6][32] - Since the beginning of 2023, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 27.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.20% [34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the communication, agriculture, forestry, and transportation sectors for the upcoming week, along with ETFs corresponding to these industries. Additionally, it suggests monitoring wine ETFs, ChiNext 50 ETFs, medical ETFs, chip ETFs, and robot ETFs based on ETF subscription sentiment indicators [7][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][9] Core Insights - Recent advancements in vaccine research pipelines indicate that leading domestic companies are actively pursuing product iteration, technological platforms, and market gaps. This includes upgrades in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and the development of combination vaccines to fill domestic product shortages [4][9] - The vaccine industry is transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and homogenized competition. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by policy, demand, and technology [9][29] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has shown a cumulative decline of 5.78% since 2025, with a recent weekly increase of 7.49% [5][11] - The relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 26% over the past 12 months [4] Company Developments - Companies like CanSino and Kangtai Biotech have made significant progress with new vaccine approvals and clinical trials, including a 24-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine and a combined acellular pertussis vaccine [4][9] - The recent clinical trial for a freeze-dried herpes zoster mRNA vaccine by Sinovac has commenced, targeting individuals aged 40 and above [4] Market Review - The vaccine sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is reported at 96.78X, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.88X, indicating a recent increase in valuation metrics [7][22] - The vaccine industry is characterized by a high proportion of Me-too pipelines, leading to intense competition and price reductions for certain products [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong innovation capabilities and differentiated product lines, recommending CanSino and highlighting the potential for demand in rabies vaccines due to increased incidence [9][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [5][7][32]. Core Insights - The market remains active, supporting the recovery of brokerage performance, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio has fallen to a low range not seen in nearly a decade, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for investing in the brokerage sector [5][32]. - The brokerage index has a PB of 1.41x, currently at the 38th percentile over the past ten years, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][10]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the CSI 300 Index by 2.8%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.9% during the week of January 5-9, 2026. The non-bank financial index increased by 2.6%, ranking 21st out of 31 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.2 percentage points [2][10]. - The top five performing brokerages during this period were Huayin Securities (+16.1%), Huaan Securities (+7.1%), Huaxin Co. (+7%), Changjiang Securities (+6%), and Caida Securities (+4.8%). The five brokerages with the largest declines were CITIC Securities (-0.5%), Bank of China Securities (-0.9%), CITIC Construction Investment (-1.7%), Guolian Minsheng (-2.3%), and Industrial Securities (-2.4%) [2][10]. Industry Weekly Data Brokerage Business - The average daily stock trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surged to 28,287 billion yuan, a 34% increase week-on-week, nearing the high point of August 2025. In December 2025, the average daily trading volume was 18,645 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3][17]. - The new fund issuance in December 2025 included 35.6 billion shares for equity funds (up 26% year-on-year), 13.3 billion shares for mixed funds (up 52% year-on-year), and 51.3 billion shares for bond funds (down 53% year-on-year) [3][21]. Investment Banking Business - In 2025, a total of 332 companies engaged in equity financing, raising 10,826 billion yuan, a 273% increase year-on-year. This included 116 IPOs raising 1,318 billion yuan (up 95.4% year-on-year) and 172 additional issuances raising 8,877 billion yuan (up 413% quarter-on-quarter) [4][22]. Capital Intermediary Business - As of January 9, 2026, the margin financing and securities lending balance reached 26,276 billion yuan, a 3.4% increase week-on-week, continuing to set new highs and accounting for 2.82% of the total market capitalization of A-shares [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokerages with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and recommends considering Jiufang Zhitu Holdings in the Hong Kong market due to strong performance certainty amid active market trading [5][32].

Group 1 - The A-share market achieved a "good start" in the first week of 2026, with major indices showing significant upward movement: Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and ChiNext Index by 3.89% [2][3][9] - The rise in A-shares is attributed to several factors, including proactive measures by the National Development and Reform Commission in the "two new" sectors, the positive trends in December's PMI, PPI, and CPI, and the recovery of previously adjusted technology sectors [3][13] - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the mid-November 2025 high indicates an early onset of the spring market, with expectations of a recovery in the upward trend seen in the second half of 2025 [3][13] Group 2 - Among the 31 first-level industries, most have seen gains since the beginning of 2026, with the top performers being comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media, which have increased by 14.55%, 13.63%, and 13.10% respectively [4][25] - In the second-level industries, aerospace equipment II and wind power equipment have led the gains with increases of 24.49% and 20.01% respectively, while state-owned large banks II and joint-stock banks II have seen declines of -2.94% and -1.92% [4][26] - The third-level industries show marketing agency and aerospace equipment III as the top gainers with increases of 26.63% and 24.49%, while state-owned large banks III and home textiles have the largest declines at -2.94% and -2.56% [4][28] Group 3 - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a slight improvement, with December's PPI showing a year-on-year decline of -1.90%, an improvement from November's -2.20%, and CPI at 0.80%, marking the third consecutive month in positive territory [5][29][30] - The macro short-cycle composite index is in a slightly turning state, suggesting that the current cycle's bottoming process is still under observation [5][30] Group 4 - The investment outlook for 2026 is optimistic, as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a supportive policy environment for industrial upgrades and a favorable macroeconomic cycle expected to benefit upstream cyclical industries [6][7][32] - The report highlights continued interest in sectors related to "anti-involution," insurance, securities, aerospace, and strong technology sectors like artificial intelligence [7][32]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the classification of factors in commodity futures into six categories, including momentum, term structure, volume-price, positions, inventory, and volatility, forming a comprehensive analysis framework from market sentiment to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2]. - The empirical results indicate that the term structure factor, particularly the roll yield, is the most robust predictor of alpha returns, while the inventory factor shows significant potential as a contrarian indicator, especially in extreme supply-demand conditions [3][4]. - The report highlights the frequency dependence of factor effectiveness, suggesting that different strategies should be employed based on the time dimension, with specific combinations of factors recommended for monthly and weekly strategies [5]. Group 2: Factor Selection - For monthly strategies, effective combinations include roll yield, contrarian inventory levels, and liquidity factors, along with some effective momentum factors [5]. - Weekly strategies should focus on roll yield and contrarian inventory levels as core components, supplemented by skewness and volatility estimation factors [5]. - The report notes that all momentum factors become ineffective at the weekly frequency, underscoring the necessity of dynamically adjusting the factor library based on trading frequency [5].

策略研究 策略点评 A 股"开门红"预示春季行情正式展开 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 湘财证券研究所 ——1 月以来市场走势点评 核心要点： A 股市场实现"开门红" 据 Wind 数据，2026.01.05-2026.01.07 日，我们关注的 6 个 A 股指数连续上 涨，最终：上证指数上涨 2.95%（逼近 4100 点）、深证成指上涨 3.74%、 创业板指上涨 3.95%、沪深 300 上涨 3.17%、科创综指上涨 6.72%、万得全 A 上涨 3.80%。 2026 年以来，A 股主要指数走出"开门红"行情，原因有：一是发改委在"两 新"领域提前发力；二是 12 月 PMI 意外好转，给予市场 2026 年一季度经 济有望大幅好转的预期；三是此前调整的科技板块，与保险、证券等板块 形成上行共振。从上证指数近期走势来看，已突破 2025 年 11 月中旬高点， 形成上行突破态势，有望恢复 2025 年下半年的上行趋势。 行情展开的推力来自于：投资领域提前发力和 PMI 意外好转 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 首先，我国在投资领域提前发力，有望在一季度 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The regulatory framework for information disclosure in the asset management sector has been further standardized, aiming to unify the disclosure rules for bank wealth management, trust, and insurance asset management products [4][12] - As of December 31, 2025, the scale of the wealth management market remains stable, with public fund size approximately 37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of about 14%, and the wealth management balance around 33 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 9% [6][12] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Dynamics - The new disclosure management measures require detailed reporting on performance benchmarks and investment asset types, enhancing transparency across the product lifecycle [5][12] - The wealth management market size has shown steady growth, with public funds and wealth management balances increasing [6][12] Wealth Management Product Yields - Cash management product yields have stabilized, with a 7-day annualized yield of 1.29% as of December 2025, unchanged from the previous value but down 54 basis points from the beginning of the year [7][16] - The average annualized yield for pure fixed-income products increased to 2.78%, while "fixed-income+" products saw an average yield of 2.44%, both reflecting upward trends due to market conditions [19][20] Wealth Management Product Break-even Rates - The break-even rate for pure fixed-income products rose to 3.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, while "fixed-income+" products had a break-even rate of approximately 3.7%, up by 1.2 percentage points [28]