Zhejiang Meorient Commerce & Exhibition (300795) 广发证券·2024-11-20 11:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.35 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 19.05 CNY [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 425 million CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 9.44% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 68.14 million CNY, down 16.62% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 165 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.29%, and a net profit of 27.42 million CNY, up 396% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company plans to host five exhibitions in Q4 2024, including a significant event in India, which is expected to contribute positively to profits due to improved bilateral relations and higher chances of visa approvals for participants [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022: 348 - 2023: 835 - 2024E: 1013 - 2025E: 1297 - 2026E: 1594 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 91.8% for 2022, 139.7% for 2023, and 21.3% for 2024 [4][3]. - Net profit (in million CNY): - 2022: 50 - 2023: 188 - 2024E: 223 - 2025E: 307 - 2026E: 393 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 187.4% for 2022, 273.5% for 2023, and 18.7% for 2024 [4][3]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 50.17%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to fixed exhibition costs despite a decline in revenue [2]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve in the coming years, with projections of 29.4% for 2024, 28.7% for 2025, and 26.9% for 2026 [4][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22 times for 2024, indicating a reasonable valuation based on comparable companies [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.97 CNY, with further increases to 1.33 CNY in 2025 and 1.71 CNY in 2026 [4][3].