TRIP.COM(09961) 民生证券·2024-11-20 23:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (9961.HK) [6] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 net revenue of 15.873 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 15.5%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.765 billion RMB, up 46.6% year-over-year, with Non-GAAP net profit at 5.963 billion RMB, a 21.8% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.773 billion RMB [1][2] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 82.4%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 34.4%, reflecting strong cost control and profitability [2] Revenue and Profitability - Revenue breakdown shows hotel accommodation at 6.802 billion RMB (up 21.7% YoY), transportation ticketing at 5.650 billion RMB (up 5.3% YoY), and vacation revenue at 1.558 billion RMB (up 17.3% YoY) [2] - The company’s international OTA platform saw hotel and flight bookings increase by over 60% year-over-year, indicating robust growth in international markets [2][3] Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific region remains the primary market for Trip.com, with booking volumes growing over 70% [3] - The company has also seen a 100% year-over-year increase in inbound hotel orders, with some hotels participating in overseas promotions experiencing over 200% growth in bookings [3] Financial Forecast - The report projects Non-GAAP net profits for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 to be 17.417 billion RMB, 18.997 billion RMB, and 21.407 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP EPS of 25.48 RMB, 27.79 RMB, and 31.32 RMB [3][5] - The adjusted P/E ratios for the same periods are forecasted to be 18x, 17x, and 15x [3][5] Conclusion - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's ability to outperform the industry in outbound tourism, supported by its strong brand and user base [3]