XIAOMI(01810) 国盛证券·2024-11-21 00:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [5][7]. Core Views - Xiaomi Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 92.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% [2]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in smartphone market share, improved cost cycles, and expansion in IoT and automotive sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: smartphones 47.5 billion, IoT 26.1 billion, internet services 8.5 billion, and automotive 9.7 billion [2]. - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 6.25 billion, with automotive segment showing an adjusted loss of 1.5 billion [2]. Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 were 43.1 million units, ranking third globally with a market share of approximately 13.8% [3]. - The domestic market share increased to 14.7%, with strong performance in Africa and Latin America [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) of domestic smartphones reached 1,101 yuan, with a high-end product ratio of 20.1% [3]. IoT Segment - IoT revenue for Q3 2024 was 26.1 billion, up 26% year-on-year, with a record gross margin of 20.8% [4]. - The shift from an ecosystem model to self-developed products is expected to enhance quality and cost efficiency [4]. Automotive Segment - As of November 13, 2024, Xiaomi has produced 100,000 vehicles, with a delivery target of 130,000 for the year [4]. - The automotive gross margin is anticipated to improve due to increased delivery scale and batch changes [4]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 356.8 billion, 456.8 billion, and 529.9 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 28%, and 16% [5]. - Adjusted net profit for the core consumer electronics business is projected to be 31.7 billion, 35.9 billion, and 42.2 billion for the same period [5]. Valuation - The report estimates a target price of 33 HKD for Xiaomi Group based on a P/E ratio of 15x for the consumer electronics segment and a P/S ratio of 2x for the automotive segment [5].