Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 31.36 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, while net profit decreased by 1.6% to 6.44 billion yuan. In Q3 2024, revenue reached 10.68 billion yuan, up 17.6% year-on-year, with net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, a 1.3% increase [1] - The company continues to optimize its customer structure, leading to an increase in average revenue per package. In Q3 2024, the average revenue per package was 1.20 yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of direct customer revenue [1] - The company has adjusted its full-year package volume growth forecast to between 11.6% and 12.3%, corresponding to 33.7 billion to 33.9 billion packages, due to current market conditions [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q1-Q3 2024, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of 31.36 billion yuan, a 12.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.44 billion yuan, down 1.6%. Q3 alone saw revenue of 10.68 billion yuan, up 17.6%, and net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 1.3% [1] Operational Analysis - The company’s package volume reached 8.72 billion in Q3 2024, a 15.9% year-on-year increase, although market share slightly declined by 0.7 percentage points to 20% [1] - The cost per package remained stable at 0.82 yuan, with transportation costs decreasing to 0.39 yuan and transfer costs to 0.25 yuan, contributing to a gross margin increase of 1.4 percentage points to 31.2% [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 9.5 billion yuan, 11.5 billion yuan, and 13.1 billion yuan respectively, from previous estimates of 10.5 billion yuan, 12.1 billion yuan, and 13.6 billion yuan [1]
中通快递-W：单票收入提升，Q3 业绩小幅增长