智通财经APP获悉，4月17日，中通快递(02057)发布2024年度社会责任报告，这也是中通快递发布的第 八份社会责任报告。报告分为 "聚人心，铸高质量发展根基""汇绿能，铺气候变化应对通途"两大专 题，从"绘中通蓝图、汇万物与共、书长治篇章"三大篇章，展现公司携手员工、客户、合作伙伴、社区 等利益相关方共同传递"用我们的产品造就更多人的幸福"的企业使命，系统展现2024年中通快递在企业 社会责任践行方面的重要举措及各项成果。 董事长赖梅松在报告致辞中表示："2024年是中国快递行业向高质量发展纵深推进的关键之年，也是我 们锚定高质量发展目标、全面践行'服务为先，实干为要'战略的关键节点。站在行业变革与时代机遇交 汇的新起点，我们肩负着推动中国快递业向更高层次跃升的使命，以坚定的信念、脚踏实地的行动，奋 力书写中通发展的新篇章。" "中国快递市场潜力大、前景广阔，中通凭借'规模、成本、基建、品牌、网络'五大核心优势，始终走 在行业前列。2024年，中通全网深入贯彻落实全国邮政管理工作会议精神，坚持'发展'与'安全'并重， 以'重安全、提能力、强服务、抓效率、保透明、激活力、促协同、抓落实、建末端、强团队'为 ...

专注高质量服务，24Q4 散单同比增长超 50%。量：公司 2024 年实现快递件量 340.1 亿件，同比+12.6%，市占率 19.4%，同比 -3.4pp，24Q4 看，单季度公司实现快递件量 96.7 亿件，同比+11%， 市占率 18.8%，同比-3.5pp，公司持续提升散件业务规模，24Q4 散件日均件量突破 700 万单，较 23 年同比增长近 50%。价：2024 年公司单票快递业务收入 1.20 元，同比+2.5%；从 24Q4 单季度看， 中通的直客结构优化抵消了单票重量下降及增量补贴增加的负面 影响，单票快递业务收入 1.24 元，同比+11%，快递核心单票收入 提升 0.13 元。成本：2024 年公司单票快递业务成本 0.68 元，同 比-6%；单季度看单票运输加分拣成本下降了约 6 分。 经营性现金流稳定，25 年包裹量增长同比预期超+20%。2024 全年公司实现毛利润 137.2 亿元，同比+18%，净利润 88.9 亿元， 同比+1.5%，实现调整后净利 101.5 亿元。单季度看，24Q4 实现 毛利润 37.6 亿元，同比+20.2%，净利润 24.5 亿元，同比+10. ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中通快递-W（02057） 证券研究报告 若提振内需，量价有望上行 2018-19 年快递量价增速上行 2018 年 7 月-2019 年 9 月，美国对中国出口商品加征关税。在外需增长 受阻的情况下，中国扩大内需。快递服务于国内线上商品零售，受益于扩 大内需。2018 年底开始，快递行业收入增速大幅上升，快递价格从大幅 下滑转为增长，2019H1 快递单量增速也有所上升。2018 年底到 2019 年底，国内快递头部公司顺丰控股和中通快递的扣非归母净利润增速都有 所回升。 若提振内需，单量有望高增长 2025 年 4 月 8 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率 由 34%提高至 84%，税率远超 2018-19 年，对中国商品出口美国的影 响或将超过 2018-19 年。因此，中国可能加大内需刺激力度，推动国内 商品零售增长，尤其是线上零售增长，有望带动快递单量加速增长。由于 2025 年美国加关税幅度更大，刺激内需力度也要更大，才能对冲加关税 的负面影响，所以 2025 年下半年，国内快递单量增速的上行幅度，有可 能超过 2019 年。 快递价格跌幅大，或将回 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中通快递-W（02057） 证券研究报告 若提振内需，量价有望上行 2018-19 年快递量价增速上行 2018 年 7 月-2019 年 9 月，美国对中国出口商品加征关税。在外需增长 受阻的情况下，中国扩大内需。快递服务于国内线上商品零售，受益于扩 大内需。2018 年底开始，快递行业收入增速大幅上升，快递价格从大幅 下滑转为增长，2019H1 快递单量增速也有所上升。2018 年底到 2019 年底，国内快递头部公司顺丰控股和中通快递的扣非归母净利润增速都有 所回升。 若提振内需，单量有望高增长 2025 年 4 月 8 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率 由 34%提高至 84%，税率远超 2018-19 年，对中国商品出口美国的影 响或将超过 2018-19 年。因此，中国可能加大内需刺激力度，推动国内 商品零售增长，尤其是线上零售增长，有望带动快递单量加速增长。由于 2025 年美国加关税幅度更大，刺激内需力度也要更大，才能对冲加关税 的负面影响，所以 2025 年下半年，国内快递单量增速的上行幅度，有可 能超过 2019 年。 快递价格跌幅大，或将回 ...

颜惠萍认为，中国快递这张国家名片，不仅代表着中国形象和软实力，还展示了中国在快递领域的领先 地位——自动化分拣、智能仓储、大数据分析、无人机配送等技术取得显著进展，中国强大的制造业与 快速发展的电商行业也为快递企业出海提供产业支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，近年来，中国快递企业加速布局海外市场，越来越多中国快递企业出海成功。近 日，中通快递(02057)首席财务官颜惠萍作为中国企业女性高管代表之一，受邀出席巴西2025年洲际女 性论坛，介绍中国快递出海情况。 颜惠萍介绍，2024年中通快递全年实现包裹量340亿件，营收达442.81亿元。国际业务量7135.95万件， 营收32.24 亿元。国际跨境快递服务涵盖跨境进出口专线、集运、跨境冷链等，覆盖全球220多个国家和 地区。 中国快递出海底蕴十足 在颜惠萍看来，中国快递出海的信心在于规模效应、物流网络经验、技术升级、制造业与电商支撑、政 策支持和服务理念协同发展上。中国快递业务量连续多年位居世界第一，这种规模效应使得中国快递企 业具有显著优势。同时，企业积累的高效物流网络建设和管理经验可直接应用到海外市场，助其提升运 营效率和服务质量。 物流、仓储、运输、客服等 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2] - The company achieved operating revenue of 44.281 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.3% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 12.92 billion yuan, a 21.7% increase year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes ZTO's leading market share in the express delivery industry, with a focus on maintaining and enhancing its competitive position [5][7] Financial Summary - In 2024, ZTO Express's adjusted net profit was 10.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [2] - The operating revenue for 2024 was 44.281 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.3% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The company’s express delivery volume reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a 12.6% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 19.4% [3] - The average revenue per package was 1.20 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 showing an increase to 1.24 yuan, a rise of 11.0% year-on-year [4] - The average cost per package decreased to approximately 0.68 yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, with significant improvements in operational efficiency [4] Operational Insights - ZTO Express aims to achieve a business volume of approximately 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion pieces in 2025, targeting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5] - The company is focusing on service quality, business volume, and profit as its three main priorities for 2025 [5] - The report highlights the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery industry, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [6][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 is 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.58%, 12.81%, and 14.73% [8] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on ZTO's strong market position and expected steady growth in volume and profit [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights ZTO Express's strong market position, with a leading market share of approximately 19.4% in the express delivery sector, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 1.5% [3][5] - The company achieved an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2][4] - ZTO Express is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected business volume for 2025 estimated between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, ZTO Express reported total revenue of 44.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [2][9] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 10.15 billion yuan, with a quarterly performance in Q4 showing a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year [2][4] - The company’s single-piece express revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year to 1.20 yuan, with Q4 showing a more significant increase of 11.0% to 1.24 yuan [3][4] Operational Metrics - ZTO Express handled 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [3][5] - The company’s single-piece express cost decreased by 6.0% year-on-year to approximately 0.68 yuan, benefiting from economies of scale and improved route planning [4] - The adjusted net profit per single piece remained stable at 0.30 yuan for the year, with Q4 showing an increase of 11.2% to 0.28 yuan [4] Market Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, with an estimated industry volume growth of 10-15% in 2025 [7] - ZTO Express is well-positioned to enhance its market share and profitability, supported by its scale and management advantages [8] - The report anticipates that ZTO Express will achieve adjusted net profits of 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue growth of 15.3% year-on-year to RMB 44.28 billion for 2024, with a net profit of RMB 10.08 billion, reflecting a 12.0% increase [1][2]. - The company aims to refocus on volume and market share growth in 2025, expecting a volume increase of 20%-24%, which is above the industry growth rate [3][4]. - The company is likely to lower prices to gain market share, which may slow profit growth in the short term, but is expected to strengthen its market position in the long term [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, ZTO Express achieved a gross profit of RMB 13.72 billion, with a gross margin of 31.0% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 10.08 billion, with a profit margin of 22.8% [2]. - The average revenue per package increased by 2.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.28, while the average cost per package rose by 1.9% to RMB 0.87 [2]. Market Position - ZTO Express handled 34 billion packages in 2024, marking a 12.6% increase, but its market share declined to 19.4%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year due to the abandonment of low-value packages [1][3]. - The company has seen a recovery in market share since Q3 2024 as it adjusts its operational strategies [1]. Future Projections - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 8.2% to RMB 9.85 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 10.23 billion [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 197.6 and USD 25.4, based on a PE ratio of 15.0x for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2][6] Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 44.28 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, with adjusted net profit reaching 10.15 billion CNY, up 12.7% [6] - The company aims to prioritize market share, indicating an expectation of intensified price competition in the industry [6] - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now predicting adjusted net profits of 9.904 billion CNY and 10.95 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion CNY - 2024: 44.281 billion CNY - 2025E: 49.173 billion CNY - 2026E: 55.692 billion CNY - 2027E: 62.710 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9%, 15%, 11%, 13%, and 13% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.006 billion CNY - 2024: 10.150 billion CNY - 2025E: 9.904 billion CNY - 2026E: 10.950 billion CNY - 2027E: 12.525 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at 32%, 13%, -2%, 11%, and 14% respectively [5] Market Position and Performance - In 2024, ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 34 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with a market share of 19.4% [6] - The average revenue per package for 2024 was 1.30 CNY, with a slight increase in Q4 to 1.32 CNY [6] - The company maintains a strong competitive position, with the highest market share and service efficiency among peers [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, ZTO Express, reported a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.82 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 10.15 billion yuan, up by 12.7% [4][13][22] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 8.7% [4][13] - The express delivery volume for the company reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 12.6%, contributing to a total express business revenue of 40.95 billion yuan, which is a 15.4% increase [5][14] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 172.2 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 138.5 billion HKD. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.13% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.63 [3] - The largest shareholder is ZTO Lms Holding Limited [3] Financial Performance - The company is expected to continue focusing on service quality, business scale, and profitability balance. For 2025, capital expenditure is projected to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with business volume anticipated to reach 40.8-42.2 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 20%-24% [7][23] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 54.5 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, and 67.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 13.8%, and 8.9% respectively. Net profits for the same period are expected to be 10.81 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 12.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.6%, 9.9%, and 8.2% [7][23] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced core costs, with unit transportation costs decreasing by 8.9% to 0.41 yuan due to improved routing and loading rates. Overall, core costs have been further reduced [6][18] - The gross profit for 2024 increased by 17.6% to 13.72 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 0.6 percentage points to 31.0% [19]