证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中通快递-W(2057.HK) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [[Table_Author] 匡培钦 Table_BaseData] 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 24Q2 单票盈利维持稳定，看好经营改善下估 值修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 08 月 21 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 年第二季度未经审计财务业绩公告，24Q2 快递业务 量 84.52 亿件，同比增长 10.1%；调整后净利润 28 亿元，同比增长 10.9%。 点评： 业务量稳健增长，单票盈利稳定 1）快递业务量：公司 24Q2 实现包裹量 84.52 亿件，同比增长 10.1%，同 比增速相对较低，我们分析主 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 根據不同投票權架構，我們的股本包括A類普通股及B類普通股。對於需要股東投票的所有事 項，A類普通股持有人每股可投1票，而B類普通股持有人則每股可投10票。股東及有意投資者 務請留意投資不同投票權架構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股（每股美國存託股代表一股A 類普通股）於美國紐約證券交易所上市，代碼為ZTO。 ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：2057） 截至2024年6月30日止六個月的 中期業績公告 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司董事會欣然公佈本集團截至2024年6月30日止六個月的 未經審計中期合併業績，連同2023年同期的比較數字，該等資料乃根據美國公認 會計準則編製。該等中期業績已由審計委員會審閱。本集團截至2024年6月30日 止六個月的簡明合併財務報表已由核數師按照香港會計師公會頒佈的香港審 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 根據不同投票權架構，我們的股本包括A類普通股及B類普通股。對於需要股東投票的所有事 項，A類普通股持有人每股可投1票，而B類普通股持有人則每股可投10票。股東及有意投資者 務請留意投資不同投票權架構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股（每股美國存託股代表一股A 類普通股）於美國紐約證券交易所上市，代碼為ZTO。 ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：2057） 內幕消息 2024年第二季度未經審計財務業績公告 本公告乃根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第13.09條及《證券及期貨 條例》（第571章）第XIVA部刊發。 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（「中通」或「本公司」）欣然公佈其根據美國證券交易委 員會（「美國證交會」）適用規則刊發的截至2024年6月30日止第二季度的未經審計 財務業績（「2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [2][4] Core Views - ZTO Express reported Q1 2024 earnings with revenue of 9.96 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.22 billion RMB, up 15.8% year-on-year, meeting expectations [2] - The company is optimizing its parcel volume structure, achieving steady growth with a business volume of 7.17 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The market share reached 19.3%, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points, primarily due to changes in industry volume calculations and a focus on high-quality development [2] - ZTO Express is shifting its strategic focus towards enhancing service quality and operational efficiency, with a positive outlook on the growth of its parcel business driven by competitive advantages in service timeliness and cost-effectiveness [2] - The report highlights ZTO Express's role as a leading company in expanding industry value, with expectations for both short-term growth and long-term development [2] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: 2024E at 44.41 billion RMB, 2025E at 50.05 billion RMB, and 2026E at 56.52 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 13% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are 10.87 billion RMB for 2024E, 13.09 billion RMB for 2025E, and 15.67 billion RMB for 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 20%, and 20% respectively [3] - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 13x for 2024E, 11x for 2025E, and 9x for 2026E, reflecting the company's strong competitive position and earnings certainty [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for ZTO Express (02057 HK) with a target price of HKD 218, representing a 17% upside from the current price [1] Core Views - ZTO Express achieved revenue of RMB 9 96 billion in Q1 2024, up 10 9% YoY, with adjusted net profit increasing 15 8% YoY to RMB 2 22 billion [1] - The company handled 7 17 billion parcels in Q1 2024, a 13 9% YoY increase, maintaining a 19 3% market share [1] - ZTO is focusing on service quality improvement while pursuing profitable growth, with a strategic shift towards quality over quantity [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 gross profit was RMB 3 billion, up 19% YoY, while net profit declined 13% YoY to RMB 1 45 billion [1] - Single ticket revenue decreased 2 5% YoY to RMB 1 36, while single ticket cost dropped 5 3% to RMB 0 94 [1] - Adjusted single ticket net profit increased to RMB 0 31, up RMB 0 01 YoY [1] Operational Metrics - ZTO operates 31,000 pickup/delivery outlets and 10,000 self-owned line-haul vehicles, including 9,100 high-capacity vehicles [1] - The company has 3,800 transportation routes and 96 sorting centers [1] - ZTO's market share in Q1 2024 was 19 3%, leading competitors like YTO (15%), Yunda (13 32%), and STO (12 36%) [1] Future Outlook - ZTO expects full-year 2024 parcel volume between 34 73-35 64 billion, representing 15-18% YoY growth [1] - The company forecasts industry growth of 15-20% for 2024 [1] - ZTO plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 40% starting from 2024, with semi-annual dividend payments [1] Valuation - The report values ZTO at 15x 2024E PE, implying a market cap of RMB 163 9 billion (approximately HKD 180 5 billion) [1] - 2024-2026E net profit is projected at RMB 10 9 billion, RMB 12 8 billion, and RMB 14 1 billion respectively [1] - Corresponding PE ratios are estimated at 13x, 11x, and 10x for 2024-2026 [1]

中通快递-W(2057.HK)/物流 证券研究报告/公司点评 份额下降,利润增长,业绩略超预期 -- 中通快递 2401 业绩点评 2024 年5 月 17 日 评级:买入（维持） 市场价格: 188.7 港元 分析师:郑澄怀 执业证书编号: S0120521050001 电话： 021-203151254 Email: zhengch@zts.com.cn 分析师:王旭晖 批业证书编号: S0740523110003 Email: wangxh06@zts.com.cn 投资要点 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | 2022 | 2023 | | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 (百万元) | 35377 | 38419 | | 42787 | 49252 | 53942 | | 营业收入增速 | 16% | 9% ...

份额下降，利润增长，业绩略超预期 ——中通快递 24Q1 业绩点评 中通快递-W（2057.HK）/物流 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年5月 17日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：188.7港元 指标 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 35377 38419 42787 49252 53942 分析师：郑澄怀 营业收入增速 16% 9% 11% 15% 10% 执业证书编号：S0120521050001 归母净利润 6809 8749 9664 12228 13384 电话：021-203151254 净利润增长率 43.2% 28.5% 10.5% 26.5% 9.5% 摊薄每股收益（元） 8.23 10.58 11.69 14.79 16.18 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 净资产收益率 12% 15% 15% 16% 16% 分析师：王旭晖 P/E 20.9 15.8 14.4 11.6 10.6 执业证书编号：S0740 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年05月19日 司 报 告 中通快递-W(02057) │ 行 业： 交通运输/物流 港 投资评级： 买入（维持） 股 当前价格： 186.90港元 - Q1 调整后净利润同增 15.8%，盈利实现高质量增长 公 目标价格： 217.80港元 司 事件： 季 基本数据 报 点 2024 年 Q1，公司实现营业收入 99.6 亿元，同比增长 10.9%，实现净利润 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 812.87/812.87 评 14.5亿元，同比下降13.0%。调整后净利润为22.2亿元，同比增长15.8%。 流通市值(百万港元) 151,924.78 ➢ 一季度公司快递业务量同比增长13.9%，市占率为19.3% 每股净资产(元) 77.49 2024年Q1，公司完成快递业务量71.7亿件，同比增长13.9%，市场份额为 资产负债率(%) 35.03 19.3%，同比下降4.1pct，市占率有所下滑主要系公司主动调整件量结构， 一年内最高/最低(港元) 229.40/124.10 降低低价亏损件比例。2024年Q1公司单票核心快递业务收入同比下降0.04 股价相对走势 元至 1.36 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [1] Core Views - ZTO Express has achieved healthy operations with a further increase in profit market share year-on-year [1] - The company focuses on maintaining a cost reduction strategy within price competition, achieving stable growth in both volume and profit [5][9] - The company has opted not to engage in loss-making businesses, which has led to an increase in profit market share despite a slight decline in volume share [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, ZTO Express reported revenue of 9.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.87%, with core express service revenue reaching 9.24 billion yuan, up 10.15% [4] - The gross profit for Q1 2024 was 3.00 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19%, while the adjusted net profit was 2.22 billion yuan, up 15.85% [4] - The company completed a business volume of 7.171 billion parcels in Q1 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.88%, with a market share of 19.32%, down 4.10 percentage points year-on-year [4] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The adjusted net profit per parcel in Q1 2024 was 0.31 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.73% [5] - The average revenue per parcel (excluding freight forwarding) was 1.36 yuan, down 2.53% year-on-year, while the average cost per parcel was 0.94 yuan, down 5.30% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin (excluding freight forwarding) improved by 2.03 percentage points to 30.62% [5] Strategic Initiatives - ZTO Express is enhancing service quality and product differentiation to break through homogeneous low-price competition [8] - The company has established over 110,000 end-point stores nationwide, which helps reduce delivery costs and improve operational flexibility [9] - The ongoing focus on balancing volume, quality, and profit is expected to support sustainable growth and enhance competitive advantages [9] Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for ZTO Express from 2024 to 2026 are 42.976 billion yuan, 48.431 billion yuan, and 54.556 billion yuan, respectively [10] - The expected net profits for the same period are 10.077 billion yuan, 11.805 billion yuan, and 14.485 billion yuan, respectively [10] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 13.73, 11.72, and 9.55 [10]

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）：坚持不做 2024年5月17日 强烈推荐/维持 亏本件，单票盈利逆势提升 东 中通快递-W 公司报告 兴 证 公司简介： 券 事件：公司发布2024年一季报，公司实现业务量71.7亿件，同比增长13.9%， 中通快递是一家集快递、物流、电商、印务 股 市场份额由去年同期的21.2%降至19.3%。调整后净利润22.24亿元，同比增 于一体的大型集团公司。公司通过全国网络 份 长15.8%。 等增值服务提供相应的快递服务，其运营模 有 式为高度可扩展的网络合作伙伴模式。服务 限 公司坚持不做亏本件，单票收入保持稳定，但市场份额下降：一季度公司较为 项目有国内快递、国际快递、物流配送与仓 罕见的出现了市场份额的同比下降，且降幅较明显，这与公司坚持不做亏本件， 储等，提供“门到门”服务和限时(当天件、 公 战略放弃了部分低价客户有关。 次晨达、次日达等)服务，同时开展电子商 司 务配送、代收货款、签单返回、到付、代取 证 24Q1行业件量增速达到25.2%，超市场预期。这其中低价件的迅猛增长与占 件、区域时效件等增值业务 券 比上升对行业竞争态势造成了较大的影响。为 ...