公司研 究 证 券研究 报 告 交通运输 2024年03月22日 中 通快递-SW（02057.HK）2023 年业绩点评 推 荐 （维持） 业绩符合预期，领先优势持续，分红回购彰 目标价：218港元 显投资价值 当前价：164港元  公司发布 2023 年年度业绩公告。1）2023 年实现营业收入 384.2 亿元，同比 华创证券研究所 +8.6%，净利润87.5亿元，同比+31.5%，调整后净利润为90亿元，同比+32.3%， 净利率为 22.8%，同比+3.5pct。2023 年每股分配 0.62 美金，同比+68%。2） 证券分析师：吴一凡 2023年第四季度实现营业收入106.2亿元，同比+7.6%，净利润22.1亿元，同 电话：021-20572539 比+3.8%，调整后净利润22.1亿元，同比+4.4%，净利率20.8%。 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com  经营数据：2023年全年包裹量为302亿件，同比+23.8%，超越行业增速4.4pct， 执业编号：S0360516090002 市场份额22.9%，同比+0.8%；通达系2023年件量增速排名：申通（35.2%）> 证券分析 ...

e p y T t r o p e R _ e l b a T | t s r i F _ e l bT able_First a T Table_First|Table_Summary Table_First|Table_ReportDate 华福证券 港股 2024年3月22日 公 司 Table_First|Table_Rating 报 中通快递（2057.HK）业绩点评 买入(维持评级) 告 当前价格： 176.2港元 单票归母 0.29 元，分红和回购计划提升 目标价格： 254.0港元 T基able_First|Table_Marke本tInfo 数据 副标题 总股本/流通股本（百万股） 824/617 投资要点： 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） 145105/108790 ➢ 事件：中通快递公布2023年及23Q4业绩，2023年公司实现营业收入384.2亿元，同比增长8.6%， 每股净资产（元） 72.62 调整后净利润90亿元，同比增长32.3%；从单季度看，23Q4实现营收106.2亿元，同比增长7.6%； 资产负债率（%） 31.86 公 调整后净利润22.1亿元，同比增长4.4%；公司23 ...

2024 年 03 月 21 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 稳增长、提分红，价值投资选中通 证券分析师： 祝玉波 S0350523120005 zhouyb01@ghzq.com.cn ——中通快递 （ ） 年年度业绩公告 -W 02057 2023 点评 最近一年走势 事件 : 2024年3月20日，中通快递发布2023年年度业绩公告： 财务方面，2023 年，中通快递实现营业收入 384.19 亿元，同比增长 8.60%，其中核心快递服务收入354.88亿元，同比增长8.94%；公司实 现毛利116.63亿元，同比增长29.02%，实现归母净利润87.49亿元， 同比增长28.49%。 2023Q4，中通快递实现营业收入106.19亿元，同比增长7.58%，其中 核心快递服务收入97.59亿元，同比增长6.44%；公司实现毛利31.28 相对恒生指数表现 2024/03/20 亿元，同比增长12.83%，实现归母净利润21.92亿元，同比增长1.37%。 表现 1M 3M 12M 业务方面，2023年，中通快递完成业务量302.02亿票，同比增长23.83%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved year-on-year, enhancing shareholder returns [1] - In FY2023, the company achieved revenue of 38.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, and an adjusted net profit of 9.01 billion RMB, up 32.3% year-on-year [1] - The company expects a package volume growth of over 15% in 2024, with a projected total package volume between 34.73 billion and 35.64 billion [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - FY2023 revenue was 38.42 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.6% [3] - Adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 9.01 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 32.3% [3] - Q4 revenue reached 10.62 billion RMB, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of 2.21 billion RMB, up 4.4% [1] - Cost and Margin Analysis: - The average revenue per package decreased by 0.16 RMB to 0.72 RMB, a decline of 11.3% year-on-year [1] - The average cost per package fell by 0.11 RMB to 0.72 RMB, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, leading to an increase in gross margin by 4.8 percentage points to 30.4% [1] - Shareholder Returns: - The company declared a dividend of 0.62 USD per share for FY2023, a 68% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 40% [1] - The stock buyback plan has been extended and increased by 500 million USD, totaling 2 billion USD [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 10.5 billion RMB and 12.1 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with an additional net profit forecast of 13.6 billion RMB for 2026 [1][3] - The expected revenue growth rates for 2024 and 2025 are 10.7% and 6.5%, respectively [3]

Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue increased by 8.6% to RMB 38,418.9 million in 2023 compared to RMB 35,377.0 million in 2022[2] - Gross profit rose by 29.0% to RMB 11,662.5 million in 2023 from RMB 9,039.3 million in 2022[2] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders grew by 28.5% to RMB 8,749.0 million in 2023 from RMB 6,809.1 million in 2022[2] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 25.0% to RMB 14,107.3 million in 2023 compared to RMB 11,289.1 million in 2022[2] - Adjusted net income rose by 32.3% to RMB 9,005.9 million in 2023 from RMB 6,806.0 million in 2022[2] - Basic adjusted earnings per ADS increased by 29.7% to RMB 11.14 in 2023 from RMB 8.59 in 2022[2] - Revenue increased by 8.6% from RMB 35,377.0 million in 2022 to RMB 38,418.9 million in 2023, driven by the recovery of express demand post-pandemic[7] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rose from RMB 6,809,056 thousand in 2022 to RMB 8,749,004 thousand in 2023[6] - Adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders increased from RMB 6,956,089 thousand in 2022 to RMB 9,000,467 thousand in 2023[6] - Basic earnings per share attributable to ordinary shareholders grew from RMB 8.41 in 2022 to RMB 10.83 in 2023[6] - Gross profit increased by 29.0% from RMB 9,039.3 million in 2022 to RMB 11,662.5 million in 2023, with gross margin rising from 25.6% to 30.4%[25] - Net profit increased by 31.5% from RMB 6,659.0 million in 2022 to RMB 8,754.5 million in 2023[29] - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 38,418.915 million (USD 5,411.191 million), a 8.6% increase from 2022[58] - Net profit attributable to non-controlling interests increased from RMB 6,658,966 thousand in 2022 to RMB 8,754,457 thousand in 2023, a growth of 31.5%[49] - Net profit attributable to ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. rose from RMB 6,809,056 thousand in 2022 to RMB 8,749,004 thousand in 2023, an increase of 28.5%[49] - Basic earnings per share increased from RMB 8.41 in 2022 to RMB 10.83 in 2023, a growth of 28.8%[49] Operating Costs and Expenses - Operating costs increased by 1.6% to RMB 26,756.4 million in 2023 compared to RMB 26,337.7 million in 2022[2] - Depreciation expenses rose by 7.9% to RMB 2,740.8 million in 2023 from RMB 2,540.9 million in 2022[5] - Interest expenses increased by 52.0% to RMB 289.5 million in 2023 from RMB 190.5 million in 2022[5] - Income tax expenses grew by 18.7% to RMB 1,938.6 million in 2023 compared to RMB 1,633.3 million in 2022[5] - Total operating costs for 2023 were RMB 26,756.4 million, accounting for 69.6% of total revenue[23] - Total operating costs increased by 1.6% from RMB 26,337.7 million in 2022 to RMB 26,756.4 million in 2023[24] - Total operating expenses increased by 27.0% from RMB 1,302.8 million in 2022 to RMB 1,654.6 million in 2023[26] - Interest expenses increased by 52.0% from RMB 190.5 million in 2022 to RMB 289.5 million in 2023[27] - Current income tax expense rose to RMB 1,780.818 million in 2023, a 28.2% increase from 2022[66] - Deferred income tax expense decreased by 35.5% to RMB 157.782 million in 2023 from RMB 244.616 million in 2022[66] - The company's effective tax rate increased to 19.71% in 2023 from 18.14% in 2022[66] - Share-based compensation expenses increased to RMB 158.278 million in 2023 from RMB 109.614 million in 2022[67] Logistics and Infrastructure - The company operates a network covering 99% of cities and counties in China, with approximately 6,000 direct network partners and over 31,000 pickup and delivery points[10] - The logistics infrastructure includes 99 sorting centers, 464 automated sorting lines, and over 10,000 self-operated trucks serving more than 3,900 trunk lines[12] - The company's proprietary Zhongtian system supports daily high-throughput processing of over 100 million orders with real-time monitoring and intelligent routing algorithms[13] - The company continues to invest in logistics infrastructure to enhance sorting and transportation efficiency, reducing unit costs in 2023 compared to 2022[13] - The company aims to build an ecosystem of integrated logistics services, including express, LTL, cross-border, warehousing, aviation, cold chain, and commercial solutions[9] - The company supports network partners in expanding rural and urban end stations to improve market penetration and service capabilities[11] - The company's core express delivery business revenue increased by 9.8% to RMB 37,512.1 million in 2023, driven by a 23.8% increase in parcel volume and an 11.3% decrease in parcel unit price[21] - The company expects the total parcel volume for 2024 to be in the range of 34.73 billion to 35.64 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 18%[19] - The company's total revenue for 2023 was RMB 38,418.9 million, with express delivery services accounting for 92.4% of the total revenue[20] - The company's freight forwarding service revenue decreased by 25.2% in 2023, primarily due to post-pandemic e-commerce price declines[22] - Express delivery services accounted for 92.4% of total revenue in 2023, generating RMB 35,488.060 million (USD 4,998.389 million)[58] - Freight forwarding services revenue decreased to RMB 906.802 million (USD 127.720 million) in 2023, down 25.2% from 2022[58] Financial Position and Cash Flow - The company has increased its share repurchase program by $500 million to a total of $2 billion, extending the program's validity to June 30, 2025[18] - The company has adopted a semi-annual cash dividend policy starting in 2024, with a minimum payout ratio of 40% of distributable profits[17] - The company declared a cash dividend of $0.62 per ADS and ordinary share for the 2023 fiscal year, representing a 68% increase compared to 2022[16] - The company voluntarily converted its secondary listing status on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to a primary listing status, effective May 1, 2023[15] - The company has been actively contributing to sustainable development and has published ESG annual reports since 2019[14] - Interest income increased by 40.3% from RMB 503.7 million in 2022 to RMB 706.8 million in 2023[27] - The debt-to-asset ratio increased from 30.6% in 2022 to 31.9% in 2023[30] - Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 12,333.9 million, RMB 686.6 million, and RMB 7,454.6 million, respectively, as of December 31, 2023[30] - Outstanding bank loan principal increased from RMB 5,394.4 million in 2022 to RMB 7,766.0 million in 2023[30] - The weighted average interest rate on drawn borrowings was 1.6% for the year ended December 31, 2023[30] - No significant investments were made or held by the company as of December 31, 2023[31] - The company had no significant acquisitions or disposals of subsidiaries, associates, or joint ventures during the reporting period[31] - The company's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments amounted to RMB 26,619 million as of December 31, 2023, with a potential decrease of RMB 2,420 million if the RMB appreciates by 10% against the USD[31] - The company incurred capital expenditures of approximately RMB 6.7 billion for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to RMB 7.4 billion in the previous year[33] - The company's capital commitments as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 4.6 billion, primarily related to the construction of office buildings, sorting centers, and warehouse facilities[33] - Total assets increased from RMB 78.52 billion in 2022 to RMB 88.47 billion in 2023, a growth of 12.7%[46] - Cash and cash equivalents rose from RMB 11.69 billion in 2022 to RMB 12.33 billion in 2023, an increase of 5.5%[46] - Total liabilities grew from RMB 24.05 billion in 2022 to RMB 28.18 billion in 2023, up 17.2%[47] - Revenue increased from RMB 35.38 billion in 2022 to RMB 38.42 billion in 2023, a growth of 8.6%[48] - Gross profit rose from RMB 9.04 billion in 2022 to RMB 11.66 billion in 2023, an increase of 29.0%[48] - Operating profit grew from RMB 7.74 billion in 2022 to RMB 10.01 billion in 2023, up 29.3%[48] - Interest income increased from RMB 503.72 million in 2022 to RMB 706.77 million in 2023, a growth of 40.3%[48] - Total equity rose from RMB 54.47 billion in 2022 to RMB 60.28 billion in 2023, an increase of 10.7%[47] - Short-term investments grew from RMB 5.75 billion in 2022 to RMB 7.45 billion in 2023, up 29.6%[46] - Inventory decreased from RMB 40.54 million in 2022 to RMB 28.07 million in 2023, a decline of 30.8%[46] - Net cash generated from operating activities grew from RMB 11,479,308 thousand in 2022 to RMB 13,360,967 thousand in 2023, an increase of 16.4%[50] - Cash used in investing activities decreased from RMB 16,041,890 thousand in 2022 to RMB 12,252,751 thousand in 2023, a reduction of 23.6%[50] - Cash and cash equivalents increased from RMB 11,692,773 thousand in 2022 to RMB 12,333,884 thousand in 2023, a growth of 5.5%[51] - Restricted cash decreased from RMB 895,483 thousand in 2022 to RMB 686,568 thousand in 2023, a reduction of 23.3%[51] - Total cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash increased from RMB 12,603,087 thousand in 2022 to RMB 13,051,310 thousand in 2023, a growth of 3.6%[51] - Short-term investments matured increased from RMB 6,713,982 thousand in 2022 to RMB 9,798,273 thousand in 2023, a growth of 45.9%[50] - Long-term investments matured increased from RMB 284,000 thousand in 2022 to RMB 5,240,732 thousand in 2023, a significant growth of 1745.3%[50] - Accounts receivable decreased by 30.1% to RMB 613.541 million in 2023 from RMB 941.971 million in 2022[62] - Accounts payable increased by 6.4% to RMB 2,557.010 million in 2023 from RMB 2,402.692 million in 2022[64] - The company repurchased 42,501,325 American Depositary Shares (ADS) in 2023 at an average price of $25.01, fully paid by December 31, 2023[71] - Dividends per share for 2021 and 2022 were $0.25 and $0.37, with total payments of $202,433 (RMB 1,289,418) and $299,319 (RMB 2,055,723) respectively[72] - A special dividend of $0.62 per ADS and ordinary share for 2023 was approved on March 19, 2024, to be paid to shareholders on record as of April 10, 2024[72] Employee and Management - The total number of employees as of December 31, 2023, was 23,554, with an additional 63,000 outsourced employees[34] - Employee compensation costs for the year ended December 31, 2023, totaled RMB 3,226.5 million, up from RMB 2,967.5 million in the previous year[34] - The company has not experienced any significant labor disputes during the reporting period[35] - The company continues to invest in employee training and education programs, including comprehensive onboarding and ongoing training[36] - The company has adopted a management securities trading code to regulate securities transactions by directors and relevant employees[37] - The company's board of directors includes Chairman and Executive Director Lai Meisong, Executive Directors Wang Jilei and Hu Hongqun, Non-Executive Directors Liu Xing and Chen Xudong, and Independent Non-Executive Directors Wei Zhen, Huang Qin, Yu Zhengjun, Gao Zunming, and Xie Fang[78] Share Repurchase and Equity - The company repurchased a total of 5,941,076 American Depositary Shares (ADS) on the NYSE during the reporting period, with a total cost of $141,415,550 (before fees)[41] - The highest price paid per ADS during the repurchase was $25.00, and the lowest price was $21.85[42] - The company granted 4,386,320 share units in 2023, equivalent to 877,264 ordinary shares, with a market value of USD 26.27 per share[67] - The company's 2016 Equity Incentive Plan has a cap of 21,000,000 shares as of December 31, 2022, and no further increases will be made after May 1, 2023[68] - In 2022 and 2023, the company granted 497,956 and 535,955 restricted stock units respectively, with associated equity incentive expenses of RMB 69,366 (audited) and RMB 96,698 (unaudited)[69] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for 2022 were RMB 8.41 and RMB 8.36, while for 2023 they were RMB 10.83 and RMB 10.60[70] Legal and Regulatory Compliance - The company operates under the "Securities and Futures Ordinance" (Chapter 571 of the Hong Kong Law), which is subject to amendments, supplements, or other modifications[76] - The company's shares consist of Class A and Class B ordinary shares, as defined by the context[76] - The company adheres to U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP)[76] - ZTO ES Holding Limited is a company registered in the British Virgin Islands[76]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 根據不同投票權架構，我們的股本包括A類普通股及B類普通股。對於需要股東投票的所有事 項，A類普通股持有人每股可投1票，而B類普通股持有人則每股可投10票。股東及有意投資者 務請留意投資不同投票權架構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股（每股美國存託股代表一股A 類普通股）於美國紐約證券交易所上市，代碼為ZTO。 ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：2057） 內幕消息 2023年第四季度及2023財政年未經審計財務業績公告 本公告乃根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第13.09條及《證券及期貨 條例》（第571章）第XIVA部刊發。 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（「中通」或「本公司」）欣然公佈其根據美國證券交易委 員會（「美國證交會」）適用規則刊發的截至2023年12月31日止第四季度及2023財 ...

e p y T t r o p e R _ e l b a T | t s r i F _ e l bT able_First a T Table_First|Table_Summary Table_First|Table_ReportDate 华福证券 港股 2024年3月14日 公 司 Table_First|Table_Rating 报 中通快递（2057.HK） 买入(维持评级) 告 当前价格： 172.5港元 中通纳入港股通，重视低估值龙一配置价值 目标价格： 257.6港元 T基able_First|Table_Marke本tInfo 数据 副标题 总股本/流通股本（百万股） 824/617 投资要点： 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） 142058/106505 ➢ 事件：2024年3月1日，上交所公告中通快递调入港股通，并于3月4日 每股净资产（元） 70.11 生效。 资产负债率（%） 33.31 公 ➢ 全年件量目标达成，盈利能力持续提升。2023年快递行业较为激烈的 一年内最高/最低（港元） 234.8/126.1 司 动 价格竞争中，中通全年完成业务量302.0亿件，同比增长23.8%，市占 ...

中通纳入港股通，低估值龙头更具配置价值 中通快递-W（2057.HK）/快递 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年3月 5日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：165.4港元 指标 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业收入（百万元） 30406 35377 41190 46567 52806 分析师：苏畅 营业收入增速 21% 16% 16% 13% 13% 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 归母净利润 4755 6809 9157 10425 12232 电话：021-20315125 净利润增长率 10% 43% 34% 14% 17% 摊薄每股收益（元） 5.75 8.23 11.07 12.61 14.79 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 净资产收益率 10% 12% 14% 14% 14% 分析师：王旭晖 P/E 25.6 18.6 13.7 12.1 10.3 执业证书编号：S0740523110003 P/B 2.6 2.3 2.1 ...

申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 交通运输 | 公司研究 中通快递（2057：HK） 2024年3月3日 ——解读入通规则，看好流动性提升带动估值回升 投资要点 买入 ⚫ 事件：2024年3月1日，上海证券交易所发布《关于沪港通下港股通标的调整的通知》，中通快递-W 维持 （02057.HK）被纳入港股通标的，自3月4日生效。 ⚫ 解读同股不同权，第二上市公司变成双重主要上市公司后入通标准与流程： 2022年10月8日，中国投 资信息有限公司也发布了《关于沪港通下的港股通股票纳入相关安排的通知》和《关于深港通下的港股通 市场数据：2024年3月1日 收盘价（港币） 155.0 股票纳入相关安排的通知》，对同股不同权（Weighted Voting Rights，WVR）公司从第二上市转换为 恒生中国企业指数 5728.84 主要上市后的纳入安排进行说明。根据《实施办法》第六十七条的规定，其考察日按照以下方式确定：1） 52周最高/最低价 (港币) 236.4/124.1 此类WVR公司转换为主要上市时在联交所上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [1] Core Views - ZTO Express's successful inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to enhance stock liquidity and potentially lead to a valuation recovery as it attracts more mainland investors [3][9] - The company has demonstrated strong fundamentals and has been a leader in the express delivery industry since 2017, but its current valuation is at a low point compared to historical averages [9][10] - The "Build and Share" philosophy is seen as a cornerstone for ZTO's long-term sustainability and competitive advantage in the express delivery sector [19][24] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On March 1, 2024, ZTO Express was added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, effective from March 4, 2024 [2][8] Investment Highlights - The inclusion in the Stock Connect is anticipated to improve stock liquidity and attract new investors, which may lead to a valuation recovery [3][9] - ZTO Express has a solid performance record, with a historical annual growth rate of 25% since its listing, and a 41.11% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2023 [9][10] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 13.43, significantly lower than its historical average of 27.83, indicating potential for valuation recovery [9][10] Business Strategy and Competitive Advantage - ZTO Express's "Build and Share" strategy has been pivotal in its growth, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements across its network [19][24] - The company has implemented three key decisions: the launch of inter-provincial express services, the introduction of a paid delivery fee system, and the establishment of a shareholding system, which have collectively strengthened its market position [12][19] - The company aims to achieve a balance of volume, price, cost, and profit, with expectations for upward breakthroughs in performance metrics [31][32] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for ZTO Express are projected at CNY 38.514 billion, CNY 45.213 billion, and CNY 52.342 billion for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with net profits expected to be CNY 9.075 billion, CNY 10.711 billion, and CNY 12.690 billion [32] - The corresponding P/E ratios for the same years are estimated to be 12.80, 10.85, and 9.16, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's financial performance [32]