快手-W：3Q业绩符合预期，电商收入增速放缓

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou with a target price of HKD 60.45 [7][26] Core Views - Kuaishou's Q3 performance met expectations with a revenue growth of 11.4% year-on-year to RMB 31.1 billion, and an adjusted net profit increase of 24.4% to RMB 3.95 billion [1] - The report anticipates a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4, with advertising revenue and GMV growth slowing to 15% and 14% respectively [1] - The e-commerce segment showed a slowdown in growth, with a 17.5% year-on-year increase, while the overall GMV grew by 15.1% [2] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue reached RMB 31.1 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year, aligning with consensus expectations [1] - Gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 54.3%, and adjusted net profit rose 24.4% to RMB 3.95 billion [1] - Revenue from live streaming, advertising, and e-commerce saw year-on-year changes of -3.9%, 20.0%, and 17.5% respectively [1] E-commerce Insights - E-commerce and other revenues grew by 17.5% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2] - The share of general e-commerce increased to 27%, with short video e-commerce growing over 40% year-on-year [2] - The number of active merchants increased by over 40% year-on-year, supported by promotional initiatives [2] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed compared to Q2 [3] - The launch of the 1.5 version of the Kuaishou AI model and the introduction of paid membership and API services contributed to revenue growth [3] - External advertising revenue saw accelerated growth, particularly in media, e-commerce, and local services [3] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 were adjusted downwards by -0.2%, -0.5%, and -3.7% respectively, reflecting slower growth in e-commerce and internal advertising [4][23] - Adjusted net profit estimates were revised to RMB 17.8 billion, RMB 23.6 billion, and RMB 28.1 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][23] - The target price of HKD 60.45 is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the advertising business valued at HKD 49.17 per share [26]