华阳股份2024年三季报点评：2024Q3净利润环比改善，新产能有望放量

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit improvement in Q3 2024, with new production capacity expected to ramp up [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.602 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.819 billion yuan, down 57.42% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the company recorded operating revenue of 6.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.99%. The net profit for Q3 was 520 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 58.72% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.51% [4]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's coal sales volume improved quarter-on-quarter, indicating potential marginal performance recovery. The decline in performance was primarily due to reduced coal sales and falling coal prices during the reporting period. The total raw coal production for the first three quarters was 28.7422 million tons, down 17.6% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 26.5818 million tons, down 15.9% year-on-year. In Q3, raw coal production was 10.0822 million tons, down 9.33% year-on-year and 0.73% quarter-on-quarter, with commercial coal sales at 9.4818 million tons, down 5.47% year-on-year but up 7.55% quarter-on-quarter [5]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton of coal decreased quarter-on-quarter, leading to a recovery in gross profit. The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was 564.33 yuan/ton, down 7.1% year-on-year. The selling price in Q3 was 550 yuan/ton, down 2.5% year-on-year but up 1.4% quarter-on-quarter. The cost per ton was 319 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year but down 8.0% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a gross profit of 230 yuan/ton, down 23.2% year-on-year but up 9.6% quarter-on-quarter [6]. Project Development - The company has ongoing coal mine projects progressing smoothly, ensuring energy reserves are secure. The approved production scale for the Qiyuan and Bolin coal mines is 5 million tons/year each, totaling an additional 10 million tons/year. Additionally, the company acquired coal exploration rights in Shouyang County for 6.3 billion tons, further enhancing its coal resource reserves and optimizing resource allocation [7]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that as the impact of the "three excesses" regulation in Shanxi Province diminishes, the company's coal production and sales are expected to gradually improve, leading to marginal performance recovery. The steady advancement of coal mine projects and active acquisition of coal exploration rights will further increase the company's coal resource reserves, potentially benefiting from increased capacity and opening up growth opportunities in the future. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.376 billion, 3.590 billion, and 3.918 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.00, and 1.09 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 8.24x, 7.75x, and 7.10x [9].