哔哩哔哩-W：首次季度盈利，期待变现释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, based on improvements in profitability and revised revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first quarterly profit, with a significant revenue increase of 26% year-on-year, reaching 7.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024. The revenue breakdown includes value-added services (2.8 billion yuan), advertising (2.1 billion yuan), games (1.8 billion yuan), and IP derivatives (600 million yuan) [3][4]. - The gross margin improved to 35%, a 10 percentage point increase from the previous year, attributed to substantial revenue growth while keeping operational costs stable [3]. - The company expects to continue enhancing its profitability, focusing on commercial monetization through high-margin businesses like advertising and gaming, while also fostering community growth [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 26.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.5%. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 30.31 billion yuan and 34.07 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14% and 12% [5][20]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve significantly, with projections of -175 million yuan in 2024, followed by positive net profits of 1.99 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.36 billion yuan in 2026 [5][20]. - The company’s gross profit margin is anticipated to rise to 32.7% in 2024, further increasing to 36.6% in 2025 and 38% in 2026 [20][23]. Advertising and Game Revenue Growth - Advertising revenue grew by 28% year-on-year to 2.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, driven by enhanced advertising products and efficiency. The company is implementing a multi-faceted advertising strategy to expand its market reach [4]. - Game revenue saw an impressive 84% year-on-year increase, reaching 1.8 billion yuan, with notable contributions from popular titles [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain a dual focus on commercial growth and community user growth post-profitability, leveraging its monetization strategies to support content creators and enhance community engagement [4]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 21 USD or 162 HKD, reflecting a P/E ratio of 32x for 2025 and 19x for 2026 [5].