YTO(600233) 信达证券·2024-11-22 07:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a steady growth in the express delivery business, with a year-on-year increase of 31.18% in business volume for October, attributed to pre-sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival and an increase in market share [3][4] - The company is expected to continue its international expansion strategy, with a focus on international express delivery and freight services, supported by its own fleet of 13 aircraft and over 140 opened routes [4] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.88 billion, 48.67 billion, and 56.04 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 16.2%, and 15.1% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In October, the company's express product revenue reached 57.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.94%, with a total business volume of 2.473 billion pieces [2] - The average revenue per piece in October was 2.31 yuan, a decrease of 3.23% year-on-year but an increase of 5.96% month-on-month [3] - The total revenue for the company is projected to grow from 53.54 billion in 2022 to 84.58 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.3% [6] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 10.5% by 2026, with a return on equity (ROE) projected to improve to 14.3% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.14 yuan in 2023 to 1.63 yuan in 2026 [6] Market Position - The company has achieved a market share of approximately 15.16%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong competitive position in the express delivery market [3]