Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 178.4 per share, based on a 2024 PE multiple of 11x for the retail business and a valuation of RMB 525 billion [2][9] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 260.39 billion (YoY +5.1%) and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 13.17 billion (YoY +23.9%) [1] - The retail segment achieved revenue of RMB 224.99 billion (YoY +6.1%) and operating profit of RMB 11.61 billion (YoY +5.5%), driven by strong growth in electronics and supermarket categories [1] - The logistics segment saw a significant improvement in profitability, with revenue of RMB 44.4 billion (YoY +6.6%) and operating profit of RMB 2.09 billion (YoY +624.3%) [1] Business Segment Analysis Retail Business - Revenue reached RMB 224.99 billion in Q3 2024, with electronics and home appliances benefiting from government subsidies and the Double 11 shopping festival [1] - The segment is expected to maintain strong growth in Q4, supported by expanded subsidy coverage and increased consumer awareness [1] Logistics Business - Achieved revenue of RMB 44.4 billion in Q3 2024, with operating profit surging 624.3% YoY to RMB 2.09 billion, driven by scale effects and supply chain optimization [1] Product Revenue Breakdown - Electronics revenue grew 2.7% YoY to RMB 122.56 billion, supported by the government's appliance replacement policy [1] - Daily necessities revenue increased 8.0% YoY to RMB 82.05 billion, with supermarket and apparel categories maintaining double-digit growth [1] Service Revenue Breakdown - Platform revenue grew 6.3% YoY to RMB 20.76 billion, driven by a 20%+ increase in third-party merchant users and double-digit growth in advertising revenue [1] - Logistics and other service revenue increased 6.5% YoY to RMB 35.01 billion [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 1,138.5 billion, RMB 1,209.8 billion, and RMB 1,287.8 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit of RMB 42.1 billion, RMB 47.2 billion, and RMB 50.7 billion [2][9] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2026, while net margin is forecasted to increase from 2.23% to 3.69% over the same period [3] Valuation - The company's retail business is valued at RMB 315.665 billion based on a PE multiple, with a total equity value of RMB 524.986 billion [13] - The target price of HKD 178.4 per share implies a 29.7% upside from the current price of HKD 137.5 [4][9]
京东集团-SW：Q3业绩超预期，关注Q4国补红利释放