Investment Rating - The report upgrades the company to a "Buy" rating, citing the potential for a new product cycle driven by the re-emergence of its three major brands in 2025E [1][5] Core Views - 3Q24 performance showed sequential improvement with total revenue increasing 7.0% QoQ to RMB 18.67 billion, though it declined 2.1% YoY [1] - Automotive business gross margin improved to 13.1% in 3Q24, up 2.1 ppts YoY and 0.9 ppts QoQ, driven by optimized component costs and improved production efficiency [1] - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed 2.9% QoQ to RMB 4.4 billion in 3Q24, with free cash flow turning positive [1] - The company expects 4Q24E deliveries to reach 72,000-75,000 units [1] - The report highlights the potential for a new product cycle in 2025E, driven by the re-emergence of the NIO, Ledao, and Firefly brands, each targeting different market segments [1] Financial Performance Summary - 3Q24 total revenue was RMB 18.67 billion, with automotive revenue at RMB 16.7 billion, down 4.1% YoY but up 6.5% QoQ [1] - Non-GAAP R&D expense ratio was 15.5% in 3Q24, down 1.0 ppt QoQ, while SG&A expense ratio increased 2.9 ppts YoY to 20.9% [1] - The company held RMB 42.2 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of 3Q24 [1] - Non-GAAP net loss per vehicle narrowed to RMB 71,000 in 3Q24 [1] Product and Brand Strategy - NIO brand (high-end positioning) will focus on niche markets with high gross margins, with future models transitioning to the ET3.0 platform, which includes significant upgrades in EEA architecture, operating systems, and self-developed chips [1] - Ledao brand (mass-market family positioning) aims to capture market share through competitive pricing post-BAAS, with its first model L60 starting deliveries in September 2024 and two new models expected in 2025E [1] - Firefly brand (entry-level premium small car positioning) will debut its first model in December 2024, with deliveries starting in 1H25E, targeting both domestic and international markets [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts 2024E/2025E/2026E Non-GAAP net losses of RMB 18.18 billion, RMB 14.16 billion, and RMB 11.76 billion, respectively [1] - Total revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 118.7 billion in 2025E and RMB 163.1 billion in 2026E [2] - Non-GAAP gross profit is expected to improve, reaching RMB 12.8 billion in 2025E and RMB 17.2 billion in 2026E [8] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is USD 10 billion, with a share price of USD 4.84 as of the report date [5][7] - The stock's 1-year performance shows a decline of 67.95% relative to the market [4]
蔚来：2024三季度业绩点评：2025E三大品牌重新发力，全新产品周期有望开启